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To own Accel Entertainment, you need to believe its distributed gaming model can compound earnings as it broadens beyond Illinois, while managing regulatory and customer concentration risks. Guidroz’s promotion looks incremental rather than a material shift to the near term story, which still hinges most on disciplined route expansion and M&A execution, with high debt levels a key watchpoint.
The recent Nevada route agreement with Green Valley Grocery ties directly into that expansion and acquisition narrative, since Guidroz’s background in scaling Louisiana routes now feeds into overseeing multi state operations, including newer markets with initially lower margins that could weigh on consolidated profitability if efficiencies are slow to emerge.
Yet investors should be aware that Accel’s reliance on Illinois and pockets of customer concentration could quickly matter if...
Read the full narrative on Accel Entertainment (it's free!)
Accel Entertainment's narrative projects $1.5 billion revenue and $107.3 million earnings by 2028. This requires 5.0% yearly revenue growth and a $72.1 million earnings increase from $35.2 million today.
Uncover how Accel Entertainment's forecasts yield a $15.17 fair value, a 25% upside to its current price.
Two Simply Wall St Community members currently place Accel’s fair value between US$14.09 and US$15.17, highlighting how personal models can cluster tightly. Set that against the company’s reliance on Illinois, where any adverse regulatory change could materially affect earnings and challenge even the more optimistic views on performance.
Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Accel Entertainment - why the stock might be worth just $14.09!
Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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