AlJazira Capital Expects 'Steady' Q2 Earnings from Saudi Aramco Amid Higher Oil Prices, Refining Margin Growth Expectations

07:03 AM EDT, 07/21/2026 (MT Newswires) -- AlJazira Capital expects Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (SASE:2222), d/b/a Saudi Aramco, to report "steady" second-quarter results on the back of rising oil prices and anticipated improvement in refining margins. The Saudi state-owned oil giant is anticipated to report a 39.7% year-over-year jump in net income, after minority, to 119.6 billion Saudi riyals, while revenue is seen growing 12.6% to 458.5 billion riyals, according to a Tuesday note. For full-year 2026, net income and revenue are projected to increase 38.7% and 13.7% on an annual basis, respectively, to 483 billion riyals and 1.899 trillion riyals. "We expect average crude oil prices this year to be higher ~25% Y/Y, while Aramco's flexibility to divert exports from east to west coast will limit the drop in crude oil volumes (-11.0% Y/Y)," the research firm said. "Our estimates assume an average oil price of around USD 85 [per barrel] and hydrocarbon volume of 11.7 [million barrels of oil equivalent per day], including crude oil production of 8.4 [million barrels per day]. Our assumptions are based on energy supply routes and production level returning to normalcy by Q4-26." Analysts at AlJazira Capital maintained their overweight rating and price target of 29.6 riyals on the stock. Saudi Aramco is scheduled to release its first-half results on Aug. 4.