Guoxin Securities: Market capital rebalance window focuses on high-quality leading low-level restoration and summer resort scenic spots

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that the social services sector stabilized under the drive of market capital rebalancing, consumer expansion policies, and zero social data in June. With the introduction of the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan to Expand Consumption”, the emphasis on service consumption is high, which is expected to open up mid-line growth expectations in the sector. Specifically, after the implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan for Expanding Consumption and the gradual decline in the Social Security Zero data base, it is recommended that priority be given to repairing the excessive decline of high-quality leaders, as well as trading opportunities at summer resort tourist attractions.

Guoxin Securities's main views are as follows:

Market review

In June, A-share social services fell 12%, and Hong Kong social services fell 8%. Recently, the sector has stabilized due to capital rebalancing. 2026.06.01-06.30 The A-share consumer services sector fell 12.20%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 by 13.98pct; the Hong Kong stock consumer services sector fell 8.43%, outperforming the CITIC Hong Kong Stock Connect Index by 0.17pct. Looking at segments, the overall performance of the catering and tax exemption sectors is lackluster; the education and human services sectors continue to adjust. Recently, the sector has stabilized, driven by market capital rebalancing, expanded consumption policies, and June Social Security Zero Data.

Industry tracking

June's zero data was corrected year on year, boosting expectations for expanded consumption policies. Total retail sales of social consumer goods in China increased by 1.3% year on year from January to June, and the year-on-year growth rate corrected in June. Structurally, service consumption/commodity consumption/food consumption increased by 5.3%/1.1%/2.8% year-on-year respectively in January-June; retail sales of travel consulting and rental services and cultural, sports and leisure services all achieved double-digit growth, and service consumption showed a structural trend. With the introduction of the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan to Expand Consumption”, the emphasis on service consumption is high, which is expected to open up mid-line growth expectations in the sector.

Subsector

Travel chain: Short-term focus on summer vacation deals and low-level restoration of high quality leaders. The Q2 oil price shock and weather disturbances led to a decline in the travel boom. The 15th Five-Year Plan for Expanding Consumption in Q3 and the June Social Security Zero Turnaround provided an expected restoration window. Although there are phased weather disturbances during the summer season, the trend of increasing air travel volume under normalization shows resilience in demand. Among them, the popularity of summer resorts is expected to be maintained; hotel and duty-free stock prices are relatively low; capital rebalancing and marginal stabilization during the summer season may bring about a restoration of strong Alpha leaders' sentiment. Cyclical allocation opportunities require fundamental inflection points or policy efforts; OTA leaders are concerned about the implementation of regulations.

Chain food and tea chain: Short-term selection certainty, midline focus on growth after digestion of the base. Under the high Q2 takeout base, tea and drink stores are under pressure. Leading companies are hedging through category expansion, but the marginal decline in store opening expectations has had an impact on short-term valuations. Subsequent store opening guidelines after the same store base is digested are worth paying attention to. Under the cost-performance trend, leading restaurants are actively adjusting store types and pricing. Their performance may be disrupted due to short-term same-store pain, and they are concerned about long-term healthy development after the adjustment; some high-quality leaders are expected to take the lead in benefiting from the restoration of Hong Kong stock liquidity in the low position. Looking at the midline, companies with strong supply chains and management capabilities still have allocation value; furthermore, leading platform profits are expected to recover as takeout competition slows down.

Education: Select and empower high-quality employment-related leaders. In anticipation of boosting domestic demand, demand for entrepreneur training and blue-collar vocational skills training is expected to be resilient. At the same time, combined with seasonal characteristics, some leaders are focusing on peak season trading opportunities.

Risk warning: systemic risks such as macro and epidemic; policy risks; lower than expected acquisitions, risk of shareholder holdings reduction, changes in market funding style, etc.