Are Axfood’s (OM:AXFO) Rising EPS Figures Quietly Reframing Its Long-Term Investment Story?

• Axfood AB (publ) has released its second-quarter and half-year 2026 results, reporting second-quarter sales of SEK 23,197 million and net income of SEK 634 million, with both quarterly and six-month earnings per share from continuing operations higher than the same periods a year earlier.
• The steady year-on-year increases in sales and earnings suggest Axfood’s underlying operations continued to improve across the first half of 2026, even as it pursued its ongoing investment and efficiency agenda.
• We will now examine how Axfood’s higher earnings per share in both the quarter and half-year shape the company’s existing investment narrative.

The future of work is here. Discover the 33 top robotics and automation stocks leading the charge in AI-driven automation and industrial transformation.

Axfood Investment Narrative Recap

To own Axfood, you have to believe in a resilient Swedish grocery operator that can steadily compound earnings while funding heavy logistics and store investments. The latest Q2 and half year figures, with modest but consistent EPS growth, broadly support that view and suggest no major change to the near term story, where the key catalyst remains execution on efficiency and City Gross, and the main risk is margin pressure from intense price competition and ongoing investment needs.

Among recent announcements, the decision at the March 2026 AGM to approve a total dividend of SEK 9.00 per share stands out alongside these results. When you set that payout against Axfood’s continued spend on automation, logistics and 10 to 15 planned new stores for 2026, it underlines how much the thesis rests on these projects eventually supporting margins, rather than stretching the balance sheet if returns disappoint.

Yet against this, investors should be aware that sustained food price pressure and a loss making City Gross could still...

Read the full narrative on Axfood (it's free!)

Axfood's narrative projects SEK99.0 billion revenue and SEK3.0 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 3.4% yearly revenue growth and a SEK0.6 billion earnings increase from SEK2.4 billion today.

Uncover how Axfood's forecasts yield a SEK270.00 fair value, a 15% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest analysts were already cautious, assuming revenue around SEK 98.9 billion and earnings of SEK 2.9 billion by 2029, so this latest EPS uptick may prompt you to rethink how much weight you place on risks like weaker Willys like for like trends versus potential upside if current profitability holds up better than that bearish path suggests.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Axfood - why the stock might be worth as much as 99% more than the current price!

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

• A great starting point for your Axfood research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Axfood research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Axfood's overall financial health at a glance.

No Opportunity In Axfood?

Our daily scans reveal stocks with breakout potential. Don't miss this chance:

• Invest in the nuclear renaissance through our list of 90 elite nuclear energy infrastructure plays powering the global AI revolution.
• This technology could replace computers: discover 26 stocks that are working to make quantum computing a reality.
• The best AI stocks today may lie beyond giants like Nvidia and Microsoft. Find the next big opportunity with these 17 smaller AI-focused companies with strong growth potential through early-stage innovation in machine learning, automation, and data intelligence that could fund your retirement.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com