Jefferies: Macau's July gambling receipts fell the most 9% year on year, and the annual forecast is to rise 5%

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the weakening of Macau's gaming revenue continued until the second quarter. As of July 19, the average daily gambling revenue for the seven days ended July 19 was about MOP 679 million, up 9.2% from week to week, but 11% lower than the average daily level in July 2025. The bank currently expects overall gambling revenue to drop 5% to 9% year-on-year in July, which is equivalent to a total monthly gambling revenue of about MOP 201 billion to 20.9 billion patacas.

The bank pointed out that since Macau's gaming revenue recorded a year-on-year increase of about 19% in June and July 2025, under this base, if gambling records a low to medium year-on-year increase in the number of units during the same period this year, it is already a steady performance, which will help restore investors' confidence in the medium term health of the market. The bank predicts that Macau's gaming revenue for the third and fourth quarters of 2026 will increase by 2% and 4% year on year, reaching MOP 260 billion for the whole year, or 5% year on year.

In terms of shares, Jefferies chose Wynn Macau (01128) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027), believing that both have better operating strength in the high-end midmarket. It predicts that the adjusted EBITDAR business under Wynn Macau will increase 11.3% year on year in the second quarter, while Galaxy will drop 6.8% year on year.