Mueller Industries (MLI) Following A 14% Drop, Is It Still A Bargain?

Mueller Industries (MLI) has drawn fresh attention after recent share price moves, with the stock down about 14% over the past month and roughly 12% over the past 3 months, compared with a longer-term gain profile.

See our latest analysis for Mueller Industries.

At around $58.97, Mueller Industries’ 1 month share price return is down 14.2% and its 3 month share price return is down 12.5%, even though the 1 year total shareholder return sits at about 42.9% and the 5 year total shareholder return is very large at roughly 4.8x. This suggests that recent momentum has cooled compared with a much stronger longer term track record.

If this kind of pullback has you reassessing opportunities across the market, it could be a good moment to see what else is gaining attention in power grid and infrastructure, starting with 33 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks.

Given Mueller Industries’ sharp pullback against a strong multi year return record, the real question is whether to step in after this reset or wait for an even cheaper entry. So how does the current valuation stack up?

Preferred P/E of 15.4x: Is it justified?

On valuation, Mueller Industries is trading on a P/E of 15.4x, which sits below both the wider US market and the average for its Machinery peers.

The P/E multiple reflects how much investors are currently paying for each dollar of Mueller Industries earnings. This can be useful when you compare it with similar companies in the same sector.

Here, the stock trades below the US market P/E of 19.2x and also below the US Machinery industry average of 26.8x. This points to a lower earnings multiple than many peers. The estimated fair P/E ratio of 24.8x is also higher than where the stock currently sits. This is a level the market could potentially move toward if sentiment and fundamentals stay aligned with that fair value view.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for Mueller Industries

Result: Price-to-earnings of 15.4x (UNDERVALUED)

However, Mueller Industries’ reliance on construction and HVAC demand, along with recent share price volatility, could quickly change how the market views that current P/E.

Find out about the key risks to this Mueller Industries narrative.

Another view on Mueller Industries: what does cash flow say?

While the P/E suggests Mueller Industries looks inexpensive, the SWS DCF model tells a different story. On this view, the stock at $58.97 is trading slightly above an estimated future cash flow value of $56.02, which points to a mild premium rather than a clear bargain.

That gap is not huge, but it hints that earnings based signals and cash flow based signals are not perfectly aligned. This raises a question for your process: which should carry more weight, the earnings multiple or the cash flow model?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Mueller Industries for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 45 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With sentiment on Mueller Industries split between caution and optimism, this is a good time to move quickly, review the data for yourself, and weigh both sides, starting with 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Mueller Industries?

If Mueller Industries has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. The broader market holds plenty of other opportunities that could fit your goals just as well.

• Target resilient performers by reviewing companies in the 80 resilient stocks with low risk scores that may help balance out more volatile positions in your portfolio.
• Spot potential value opportunities early by scanning the screener containing 20 high quality undiscovered gems before they attract wider market attention.
• Strengthen your core holdings by filtering for businesses in the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (48 results), so you can focus on companies with firmer financial foundations.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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