According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the year-on-year growth rate of the US CPI fell from 4.2% in May to 3.5%, and the core CPI fell from 0.2% to 0.0% month-on-month. The overall CPI and core CPI growth rates were lower than market expectations. The month-on-month decline in US CPI in June was mainly driven by a sharp correction in energy costs. At the same time, negative month-on-month growth in core commodities and a slowdown in the growth rate of core services contributed to a slowdown in the pace of inflation. Since the US-Iran agreement is very weak, the risk of rising crude oil prices still exists. There is still some upward risk of subsequent US inflationary pressure, but overall inflationary pressure is manageable, and we still maintain the view that the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the policy interest rate level unchanged this year is high.

According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the year-on-year growth rate of the US CPI fell from 4.2% in May to 3.5%, and the core CPI fell from 0.2% to 0.0% month-on-month. The overall CPI and core CPI growth rates were lower than market expectations. The month-on-month decline in US CPI in June was mainly driven by a sharp correction in energy costs. At the same time, negative month-on-month growth in core commodities and a slowdown in the growth rate of core services contributed to a slowdown in the pace of inflation. Since the US-Iran agreement is very weak, the risk of rising crude oil prices still exists. There is still some upward risk of subsequent US inflationary pressure, but overall inflationary pressure is manageable, and we still maintain the view that the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the policy interest rate level unchanged this year is high.