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    Does Full Fabhalta Approval in IgA Nephropathy Reshape the Bull Case for Novartis (SWX:NOVN)?

    Simply Wall St·07/19/2026 22:15:33
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    • Earlier this month, Novartis received traditional FDA approval for Fabhalta (iptacopan) to slow kidney function decline in adults with primary immunoglobulin A nephropathy at risk of disease progression, upgrading its earlier accelerated approval that was based on proteinuria reduction.
    • The decision is grounded in two-year Phase III data showing Fabhalta’s first-in-class oral complement inhibition meaningfully slowed estimated glomerular filtration rate decline versus placebo, reinforcing Novartis’s push into rare kidney diseases.
    • We’ll now explore how this full Fabhalta approval, backed by longer-term kidney function data, may influence Novartis’s broader investment narrative.

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    Novartis Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Novartis today, you generally need to believe that its focus on complex, high-value therapies can offset patent erosion and pricing pressure. Fabhalta’s full IgAN approval strengthens that case in renal disease, but it does not change the near term overhang from Entresto’s loss of exclusivity or ongoing global price headwinds, which still look like the key swing factors for the stock.

    The most directly relevant recent development alongside Fabhalta is the broader EU approval of Novartis’s SMA gene therapy Itvisma. Together, Fabhalta and Itvisma underscore how Novartis is leaning into rare, severe conditions where clinical differentiation can matter more than price alone. For investors watching near term catalysts, these approvals help support the company’s innovation story even as management still guides to only low single digit sales growth in 2026.

    Yet, despite this clinical progress, investors should be aware that pricing pressure and loss of exclusivity could still...

    Read the full narrative on Novartis (it's free!)

    Novartis' narrative projects $65.6 billion revenue and $18.1 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 5.1% yearly revenue growth and a roughly $4.6 billion earnings increase from $13.5 billion today.

    Uncover how Novartis' forecasts yield a CHF123.55 fair value, in line with its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    SWX:NOVN 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    SWX:NOVN 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Fabhalta’s win arrives against a backdrop where the most cautious analysts expected revenue of about US$61.7 billion and earnings near US$16.1 billion by 2029, reminding you that some see oncology and immunology execution risks as enough to justify a far lower future PE and that views on Novartis’s upside can differ sharply.

    Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Novartis - why the stock might be worth just CHF123.55!

    The Verdict Is Yours

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.