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According to CME “Federal Reserve Watch”, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 85.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 14.4%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until September is 38.5%, the probability of increasing interest rates by 25 basis points is 53.5%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 7.9%.

Zhitongcaijing·07/19/2026 21:57:00
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According to CME “Federal Reserve Watch”, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 85.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 14.4%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until September is 38.5%, the probability of increasing interest rates by 25 basis points is 53.5%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 7.9%.