World Cup Final Preview: What Do Prediction Markets Say About Messi's Chances?

Lionel Messi is expected to play the final World Cup match of his career on Sunday, and prediction markets suggest he will lose it, pricing Spain at 59% to lift the trophy at MetLife Stadium.

The math has been against Argentina before.

La Albiceleste trailed Egypt 2-0 in the last 16 and England 1-0 late in the semifinal, with Messi inspiring comeback wins both times. Four years ago in Qatar, his side lost its opener to Saudi Arabia before lifting the trophy anyway.

Polymarket traders still give the defending champions just 41% to retain the trophy, with more than $4.2 billion already traded. Kalshi shows a near-identical 58% for Spain in their market, with over $1.2 billion in volume.

Why Spain Is The Better Team

Spain has averaged nearly 64% possession, conceded one goal in seven matches and allowed just 0.3 expected goals per game, likely the best defensive record by any World Cup finalist.

La Roja also suffocated pre-tournament favorite France 2-0 in the semifinal, with 2024 Ballon d’Or winner Rodri completing more passes under pressure than any player at the tournament.

Spain’s press is relentless, winning the ball in the final third at roughly double Argentina’s rate of 2.9 times per game, and its high defensive line squeezes opponents into their own half for long stretches.

Argentina has already shown it can crack under that kind of heat. England’s early press pinned Scaloni’s side back so completely in the semifinal that it managed just three touches in the opposition box before halftime.

England eventually tired and retreated. Spain, with the deepest squad in the tournament and Rodri sweeping up every loose ball, likely won’t. If Argentina survives the first hour, however, its tournament-best 90.5% passing accuracy suggests it can wrestle back control and start feeding Messi between the lines.

Why Argentina Keeps Cheating Death

Twelve of Argentina’s 19 goals have arrived after the 75th minute, including Lautaro Martinez’s stoppage-time winner against England, headed home from a Messi cross.

Messi, 39, has scored or assisted 12 of those goals and is the roughly 48% favorite on Kalshi to win his first Golden Boot.

Kylian Mbappe is second, with 41%. Both have scored 8 goals, with Messi leading due to completing more assists. Mbappe can still add to his tally in Saturday’s third-place game against England.

Argentina and Spain have only met once before at a World Cup, in 1966. Argentina won 2-1.

Why It Matters To Investors

Traditional sportsbooks are cashing in alongside the prediction platforms. Deutsche Bank projects a $3.3 billion U.S. handle for the tournament, nearly double a Super Bowl, and recently raised its estimate to as much as $3.8 billion over two weeks.

Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) expects to process 100,000 wagers per minute at peak, while DraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ:DKNG) reported record soccer handle.

Kick-off is Sunday at 3 p.m. ET.

Image: IMAGN