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    The Bull Case For Alphabet (GOOGL) Could Change Following EU AI Rules And Gemini Delay - Learn Why

    Simply Wall St·07/19/2026 14:16:21
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    • In recent days, Alphabet has postponed the launch of its flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro AI model and faced a European Commission order requiring Google to open key Android features and anonymized Search data to rival AI developers under the Digital Markets Act from 2027.
    • These twin pressures, execution setbacks in core AI products and tougher EU interoperability rules, raise fresh questions about Alphabet’s competitive moat in high‑value cloud, search, and mobile ecosystems.
    • We’ll now examine how the Gemini 3.5 Pro delay, amid rising EU regulatory demands, reshapes Alphabet’s existing investment narrative and risk balance.

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    Alphabet Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Alphabet today, you have to believe its heavy AI and cloud spending will translate into durable demand across Search, YouTube and Google Cloud, even as near term sentiment swings with each Gemini headline. The Gemini 3.5 Pro delay and new EU interoperability rules are a setback for the AI story, but they do not yet change the main near term catalyst: evidence that AI usage is converting into higher‑margin cloud and ad revenue, versus the key risk of rising regulatory and capital intensity pressure on profitability.

    In that context, Berkshire Hathaway’s multi billion dollar private placement in Alphabet, which helped fund AI data centers and infrastructure, is particularly relevant. It underlines how central cloud and AI capacity have become to the thesis at the same time that Europe is forcing Alphabet to open up parts of Android and Search to rivals. For me, this combination puts more weight on upcoming cloud results and AI monetization updates as the clearest reality check on the story.

    Yet behind Alphabet’s strong recent returns, there is growing regulatory and AI competition risk that investors should be aware of, especially around...

    Read the full narrative on Alphabet (it's free!)

    Alphabet’s narrative projects $701.1 billion revenue and $221.8 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 18.4% yearly revenue growth and about a $61.6 billion earnings increase from $160.2 billion today.

    Uncover how Alphabet's forecasts yield a $427.89 fair value, a 23% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    GOOGL 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    GOOGL 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Some of the most optimistic analysts were projecting around US$832,000,000,000 in 2029 revenue and US$263,700,000,000 in earnings before this news, while also warning that rapid advances from AI native rivals could erode Google’s search edge, which shows how widely opinions differ and why it is worth weighing several viewpoints in light of the Gemini delay and tougher EU rules.

    Explore 92 other fair value estimates on Alphabet - why the stock might be worth as much as 42% more than the current price!

    Reach Your Own Conclusion

    Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.