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    Newmont (NEM) Could Be 36% Undervalued After Cadia Restart And Analyst Upgrades

    Simply Wall St·07/17/2026 16:23:55
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    Newmont (NEM) is back in focus after analyst upgrades tied to improved operational efficiency, growing free cash flow and continued share buybacks, as well as reassurance from resumed operations at the Cadia mine following a recent seismic event.

    See our latest analysis for Newmont.

    Despite the recent analyst upgrades and the Cadia restart, Newmont’s share price has been under pressure, with the 30 day share price return down 16.24% and the 90 day share price return down 22.03%, even as the 1 year total shareholder return sits at 58.30%. This suggests longer term holders have had a very different experience compared to recent buyers.

    If Newmont’s recent volatility has you thinking more broadly about gold producers, this is a good time to scan the wider sector with the Simply Wall St screener for 33 elite gold producer stocks

    Analysts see almost a 47% gap between Newmont’s share price and their targets, while one intrinsic estimate points to only a modest discount. Is the market being too cautious after the recent pullback, or appropriately sceptical?

    Most Popular Narrative: 36% Undervalued

    The most followed Newmont narrative places fair value at $141.46, well above the last close of $90.83. It builds that gap on a detailed earnings and cash flow roadmap.

    The realization of synergies and increased production scale following the Newcrest Mining acquisition, together with ongoing asset optimization and the ramp-up of expansion projects (such as Ahafo North and Tanami), should support long-term revenue growth and cash flow stability.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see what sits behind that confidence in Newmont? The narrative leans on steady top line expansion, rising margins, and a future earnings base that has to support a richer multiple.

    Using an 8.67% discount rate, the narrative links expected revenue and profit growth to that $141.46 fair value. It then compares this to Newmont’s current price and a future P/E that sits below the wider US Metals and Mining industry. The result is a valuation gap that depends heavily on earnings compounding, margin gains, and ongoing share count reduction all aligning with those projections.

    Result: Fair Value of $141.46 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, those Newmont projections rely on key assumptions, and execution setbacks at assets like Red Chris or rising sustaining and development capex could quickly challenge that 36% undervalued narrative.

    Find out about the key risks to this Newmont narrative.

    Next Steps

    Given the mixed sentiment around Newmont, it makes sense to look past the headlines and weigh the data for yourself before reacting. To see which potential bright spots analysts are focused on, review the 4 key rewards.

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond Newmont?

    If you are weighing what to do with Newmont, do not leave the rest of your watchlist on autopilot when there are other opportunities to research.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.