SpaceX (SPCX.US) is about to lift the ban: the 600 million leverage game and financial reporting test

According to Woofun AI, after SpaceX (SPCX.US) completed the largest IPO in history, market sentiment quickly changed from fanaticism to calm. The stock price experienced a sharp reversal just over a month after listing. The core conflict has shifted from capital inflow to the double test of supply pressure and profit verification.

The divergence in market performance revealed a very different fate for investors. At the beginning of the IPO, SpaceX successfully raised $85.7 billion, and the opening price was fixed at $150, yet this price did not become a safe haven for investors. Investors who entered the market at the opening of the market are currently facing book losses of about 10%, and the losses have increased to 40% when the stock price hit a high point in June. In this offering, retail investors received unusually generous quotas, accounting for about 20% of the total issuance volume, and added hundreds of millions of dollars in capital purchases at the beginning of the listing. In stark contrast to this is the profit of shorting forces. As the stock price fell below the issue price, the shorters accumulated a total of about $8.7 billion in book profits.

This drastic shift in power over time marks the market's re-examination of the asset's pricing logic.

Despite traditional stock market sentiment turning cold, the cryptocurrency derivatives market has retained its last speculation. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, there are still hundreds of millions of dollars worth of leveraged cryptocurrency contracts linked to SpaceX, even though the volume of related contracts has dropped by more than 80% from the peak. These tokenized products allow investors to participate in investments through blockchain infrastructure, and the number of open contracts shows that there has been no large-scale withdrawal of capital from the market.

However, the volume of open positions itself cannot directly indicate the direction, as it includes market maker hedging and arbitrage transactions. It is worth noting that if the stock price fluctuates drastically after the earnings report is released or if the ban on more stocks is lifted, these highly leveraged positions will face serious liquidation risks. Previously, SpaceX's stock price once surged to $225, but now to trigger the early lifting mechanism, the stock price needs to rise more than 29% from Wednesday's closing price to $175.50. If the closing price is higher than this level for at least 5 out of the next 10 trading days, 455.8 million shares will be released early. This mechanism may become a key variable driving further stock price fluctuations in a context where leveraged positions are forced to close and market activity is far below the peak in June.

Future supply pressure and financial report verification will be the ultimate variables in determining the direction of stock prices. Up to 40% of SpaceX shares may enter the publicly traded market by December 8, while the rest of the shares, including Musk's holdings, are expected to remain restricted and will not be lifted until mid-2027.

This timeline confirms the concerns of some market observers that this relatively small IPO has caused a temporary imbalance between supply and demand. Noble's bearish view suggests that the increase in SPCX stock supply will completely expose the extent to which the June stock price rally depended on scarcity. Even if not all eligible shareholders will sell off immediately, employees may choose to hold, early investors may exit in batches, and institutional investors may accept some sell-off pressure, but the lifting of the ban will undoubtedly provide more shareholders with an opportunity to stop profits or diversify their assets.

If employees and early investors concentrate on selling when demand is weak, the additional supply may even continue to put pressure on even when the stock price has already fallen by 40%. The upcoming first quarterly earnings report will be a key window for verifying these assumptions. Investors will keep a close eye on revenue growth, spending levels, and whether SpaceX can expand without losing money or issuing new shares. Once financial reports fail to support current valuations, compounding the supply shock brought about by the wave of ban lifting, the scarcity logic that once drove stock prices to soar may completely collapse.