Berenberg Updates Model for BHP Group After Fiscal Q4 Operational Review

08:17 AM EDT, 07/17/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Berenberg updated its model for BHP Group (BHP.L, BHG.JO) as it took into account the mining company's fiscal fourth-quarter operational review and $2.3 billion Jansen project impairment. "Encouragingly, production guidance for FY 2027 was broadly in line with our expectations, with management guiding to 260-272mt of iron ore (versus our 266mt estimate), 18.5-20.5mt of metallurgical coal (versus our 18.8mt), and 14-16mt of thermal coal (versus our 14.3mt)," analysts said in a note published Friday. "Elsewhere, the news of a Vicuña Stage 1 final investment decision in CY 2026 is in line with previous guidance, which we view as positive, alongside the approval of the USD900m Ministers North iron ore project to maintain [Western Australian Iron Ore] volumes." The research firm also views BHP as capable of paying a higher dividend to shareholders, noting that the company's net debt stood at $9 billion at the end of fiscal 2026, lower than the target range of $10 billion to $20 billion. Berenberg expects a final dividend of $1 per share for fiscal 2026, 14% above the Visible Alpha consensus. The stock's hold rating and price target of 34 pounds sterling remain unchanged.