Berenberg Trims BASF Price Target Amid Chemical Price Concerns; Hold Rating Maintained

04:46 AM EDT, 07/17/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Berenberg reduced its price target for BASF (BAS.F) to 47 euros from 52 euros, citing concerns that a sharp reversal in chemical prices will weigh on the German chemicals group's full-year 2027 outlook. "The rule of thumb that investors in cyclicals sell on peak earnings proved a reasonable guide to the share price reaction (-3%) to the positive pre-release of BASF's Q2 results on 15 July. Helped by exceptional ammonia and [Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate] prices, as well as a good performance in agriculture, EUR2.4bn in EBITDA was easily ahead of the EUR2.1bn expectation of consensus. However, the market likely questioned the sustainability of 11% higher [year-on-year] prices and 7% higher volumes, especially given that many commodity chemicals have moved towards their price levels prior to the Iran conflict," according to a Thursday note. "The 4.3% Q2 2026 China GDP growth figure of the previous day (consensus: 4.5%) appears consistent with the [center] of the debate on the stock moving from Iran-induced supply shortages to demand destruction. We retain our Hold rating," analysts added. The research firm expects BASF's upgraded full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance of 6.9 billion euros to 7.7 billion euros to be "readily achievable," even with pre-buying and potential Rhine River water-level issues. On the earnings front, Berenberg said the upward revision to its 2026 EPS forecast is primarily driven by "more favorable" foreign exchange rates and higher margins across the materials and agricultural solutions divisions. Conversely, analysts lowered their projections for the subsequent years to account for an anticipated "steeper" decline in chemical prices.