Berenberg Expects H2 Recovery for Antofagasta After 'Softer-than-expected' Q2 Production Results

04:32 AM EDT, 07/17/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Berenberg anticipates volume pick-up in Antofagasta's (ANTO.L) second half, after the mining company reported "softer-than-expected" second-quarter production results. "We expect production to be an H2-weighted story for Antofagasta, with throughput and copper grades expected to pick up across Centinela and Los Pelambres, driving a sequential [quarter-on-quarter] volume improvement, in our view. However, we believe there is still some risk to full-year production and gross cash cost guidance - and sit at the bottom end (at 651 [thousand tonnes]) and the top end (at USD2.60 [per pound]) of guidance respectively. Elsewhere, we think the company's growth projects are on track, including pre-commissioning activities being progressed at the Centinela Second Concentrator during the quarter," according to a Thursday note. The research firm flagged that the company's second-quarter copper output of 142,000 tonnes missed Berenberg's estimate of 153,000 tonnes, due to extended maintenance on the concentrate pipeline at Los Pelambres, Chile. Analysts also noted higher-than-expected costs for the three months, driven by a one-off labor settlement at Centinela, elevated input expenses and a stronger Chilean peso. "In our view, Antofagasta presents a compelling opportunity in the copper space. However, we reiterate our Hold rating for now, and see H2 2027 as a turning point in momentum for the shares (prior to a significant step-up in copper volumes to c830kt in 2028E, we expect)," Berenberg said, as it left the stock's price target unchanged at 44 pounds sterling. On the earnings side, analysts at Berenberg marginally raised their sales forecasts for full-year 2027 and 2028, while their 2026 estimate edged down. EPS projections across the three years were revised upward.