Guoxin Securities: Delivery of power devices continues to lengthen, and industry prosperity is steadily increasing

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that the power device industry is clearly showing signs of an accelerated recovery. The delivery period from 1Q25 was gradually lengthened, prices for some 1Q26 devices began to rise, and the delivery period continued to extend into 2Q26, and prices remained upward. Demand side NEVs, data centers and energy storage continued to grow at an accelerated pace. The NEV penetration rate reached 56.9% in May, SiC MOSFET main drivers accounted for 30.9% in January-May, and there is plenty of room for industry growth.

Guoxin Securities's main views are as follows:

New energy vehicles: the share of main drives above 200KW rose to 36%, and the peak electric drive power reached 580kW

In terms of vehicles, according to China Automobile Association data, China sold 1.49 million NEVs in a single month (YoY +14.5%, MoM +11.3%) and produced 1.55 million units (YoY +22.4%, MoM +17.7%) in May, and the monthly NEV penetration rate was 56.9%. From January to May '26, the share of main drives of new energy vehicles above 200KW continued to increase to 36%, and the peak power of electric drives rose from 255 kW in '22 to 580 kW in '26.

In terms of main-drive IGBT power modules, the leading advantages of the main manufacturers, Xinlian Electric, Silanwei, and Star Semiconductor, have gradually established their leading edge, and the share of overseas manufacturers is gradually declining. The future industry pattern will gradually converge. Competition mainly comes from share switching among leading manufacturers.

In terms of silicon carbide penetration, SiC MOSFETs accounted for 30.9% of the main drive modules of new energy insurance passenger vehicles in China from January to May, the penetration rate of 800V models was about 33%, and the penetration rate of silicon carbide in 800V models was 77%.

Delivery and price tracking

Delivery times for power devices began to increase in 1Q25, and prices for some devices began to rise in 1Q26. Entering 2Q26, the delivery period of power devices continued to be extended, and prices remained upward.

Power semiconductor performance review

Market share has increased steadily. Due to rising raw material costs, gross margins have declined somewhat, and the number of inventory turnover days for medium- and low-voltage device manufacturers has been shortened.

Investment advice

The industry is picking up at an accelerated pace, and demand-side data centers, new energy vehicles and energy storage have continued to grow at an accelerated pace. There is still plenty of room for domestic replacement of medium- and low-voltage power devices in automobiles; on the data center side, electricity consumption is increasing exponentially, and demand for power devices is increasing at an accelerated pace, SiC/GaN ushered in incremental space; the accelerated increase in energy storage demand is driving a simultaneous increase in demand for power devices. With the release of the dividends of electrification single products, industry growth mainly comes from incremental space in automobiles, data centers and energy storage; production capacity expansion returns to rationality, products gradually develop from single power semiconductors to power+analog+MCU product solutions; and the coverage market gradually expands from domestic to overseas. The bank believes that against the backdrop of a moderate recovery in demand, industry delivery times are gradually lengthening and prices are gradually picking up.

Risk Alerts

Risk of cyclical fluctuations in the industry (semiconductor industry is highly correlated with the macroeconomic situation); risk of fluctuations in the new energy market (influence of factors such as policy changes and supply chain support); uncertainty in the global supply chain (increase in supply chain costs due to foreign exchange fluctuations, trade restrictions, etc.).