BNP Paribas sees energy shock lifting inflation, pushing bond yields higher in H2 2026

• BNP Paribas flagged a cooling in the energy shock as oil fell back to pre-war levels following a June 17 US-Iran memorandum.
• European gas prices stayed about 43% above pre-war levels, keeping inflation pressure elevated despite easing momentum in the crisis.
• Rising inflation flipped expectations for policy easing, with the ECB delivering a 25-basis-point rate increase in June.
• Markets shifted toward tighter policy at the Fed and Bank of England, driving long-term yields higher across major sovereign markets.
• 10-year German yields rose nearly 30 basis points, while France, the UK, and the US saw moves of more than 50 basis points amid weak Q1 growth.

Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. BNP Paribas SA published the original content used to generate this news brief on July 16, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.