$69,000 becomes a life and death line: can the handover of old and new holders stabilize the coin market?

According to Woofun AI, Galaxy Research analyst Alex Thorne pointed out that between 2024 and 2025, Bitcoin on-chain transfer activity that has been held for more than a year slowed significantly, marking the end of the large-scale distribution phase.

However, the silence of old coins did not provide a definitive safety cushion; the key is whether these assets have actually fallen into the hands of new holders. Historical data shows that there was a similar wave of old currency activations in 2017. At the time, it was the peak of the bull market cycle, and the current situation is facing similar logical torture: off-chain evidence of ownership transfers is difficult to verify, and the market is standing at the crossroads of old and new forces.

Whether this handover is stable depends on whether a new generation of investors can maintain the cost line, rather than simply rely on old holders to stay on hold.

Portrait of the holder in statistical caliber. Galaxy Research defines long-term holders as those who have held for more than a year, while Glassnode's threshold is set at around 155 days. This time difference has led to misinterpretation of the data. According to Glassnode's standards, bitcoins purchased in September 2025 will be counted as long-term holders by mid-February 2026, but this is still a few months until it satisfies Galaxy Research's “holding for over a year” standard.

This means that investors who entered the 2024-2025 distribution phase will most likely face losses in 2026, before Galaxy Research's statistical cycle will appear in Glassnode's long-term holders' loss data.

This statistical lag masks the true situation of some buyers in 2025, leaving the market with blind spots in judging the source of selling pressure.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the core game of the current market focuses on the key profit and loss line of $69,000. Data compiled by Glassnode shows that the overall cost benchmark for short-term holders is around $69,000, which forms a watershed between profit and loss.

However, Bitcoin is currently trading around $60,000, a level that poses a severe test to the cost benchmark. If prices do not recover effectively, a large number of investors who have entered the market recently will continue to lose money, which in turn will cause continuous selling pressure.

It is worth noting that although the reduction in positions in the derivatives market indicates that leveraged capital is reducing risk, this is not equivalent to a return in spot demand. Real market stability requires the acceptance of spot buyers, not just a decline in sellers. If ETF capital flow does not continue to be positive, supply-side contraction alone will be difficult to support the price breaking through the high cost of $69,000.

Future trends will determine whether the nature of this asset transfer forms solid support or a shift in vulnerability. If the Bitcoin price successfully surpasses $69,000, it will verify that investors who entered the market between 2024 and 2025 have been converted into stable holders, and the market structure has been optimized. Conversely, if the price falls back to the previous range, even if old Bitcoin holders who have held it for more than a year remain silent, the new generation of holders may become a new source of selling pressure due to increased losses. Glassnode's observations suggest that the current decline in selling behavior only means an easing of supply pressure, but it has not been confirmed whether there is enough to handle new demand. A trend around $69,000 will be a key signal, revealing whether the market is successfully transferring risk to a more robust generation or simply passing vulnerability from old holders to new entrants. The outcome of this game will directly define the next phase of market trends.