Northeast Securities: Innovative R&D and performance implementation with a focus on the innovative drug sector

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Northeast Securities released a research report saying that the capital environment in the pharmaceutical industry has improved marginally, the R&D activity of innovative drugs remains high, and the upstream CXO sector is expected to benefit from the recovery of R&D investment and clinical project advancement; midstream innovative pharmaceutical companies, driven by high disease burden such as tumors and unmet clinical needs, have entered a stage of value revaluation centered on clinical data, registration progress, commercialization volume, and BD fulfillment.

The main views of Northeast Securities are as follows:

Investment and financing in the global and Chinese healthcare industry has gradually stabilized after experiencing an early decline, and the innovative drug industry chain is expected to enter a new stage

On the one hand, the amount of global healthcare investment and financing has continuously rebounded since it bottomed out in 2023, and the total amount of financing continued to be at a high level in the first half of 2026, indicating that industrial capital confidence is being repaired; on the other hand, China's healthcare investment and financing rebounded markedly in 2025, compounding that the license-out transaction amount for innovative drugs continued to rise, and the ability of domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies to obtain external financial support through down payments, milestone payments, and sales shares was significantly enhanced. At the same time, the number of new IND reports and clinical trial registrations remained high, indicating that pharmaceutical companies' R&D activity is still increasing. Improvements on the capital side resonate with expanding demand on the R&D side. As a “water seller” in the innovative drug industry chain, CXO is expected to be the first to benefit from the recovery of R&D investment and the advancement of clinical projects.

The field of oncology is still the most important source of clinical demand for innovative drugs in China

The number of new cancer cases and cancer deaths in China each year is high in the world. Major cancers such as lung cancer, colorectal cancer, breast cancer, liver cancer, and stomach cancer make up the main disease burden. As the population ages, diagnostic capacity increases, and lifestyle changes, China's tumor lineage is undergoing structural migration: the burden of traditional high-incidence esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and liver cancer has declined, while the burden of diseases such as lung cancer, colorectal cancer, breast cancer, and prostate cancer, which are closer to the structure of cancer types in high-income countries, continues to rise. At the same time, there is still room for improvement in the early diagnosis rate of major cancer types in China. Although the overall five-year survival rate continues to improve, there is still a gap compared to mature overseas markets. This means that demand for cancer treatment in China will remain high for a long time, requiring not only the improvement of early screening and early diagnosis systems, but also innovative treatment plans that are more efficient, more accurate, and more accessible.

Innovative assets such as domestic ADCs and dual antibodies are gradually moving from an early proof of concept stage to a value verification stage with registered clinical promotion, key data readout, and potential BD implementation

The bank believes that in the future, the focus should be on companies with the following characteristics: first, the core pipeline has entered or is about to enter the registered clinical stage, and early clinical data have provided preliminary verification of efficacy and safety, and the probability of success and clinical development in the next three phases is relatively high; second, assets are differentiated in target selection, molecular design, indication layout, or combined drug use strategies, and can form a relatively clear clinical positioning and commercialization space in a race track where competition is gradually intensifying such as ADC and dual antibodies; third, on the basis of meeting the above two conditions, related assets have not yet completed global equity Authorization still preserves greater flexibility in foreign cooperation. For this type of asset, the value comes not only from commercialization revenue after domestic listing, but also from potential overseas licensing, joint development, milestone payments, and global sales shares. Proposals at this stage focus on Maiwei Biotech, Junshi Biotech, Zejing Pharmaceuticals, HiCisco, Colon Pharmaceuticals, Ganli Pharmaceuticals, Connoya, Hejing Biotech, and Kexon Pharmaceuticals. Subsequent key clinical data, registration progress, commercialization volume, and BD cooperation trends are worth continuing to track.

Risk warning: risk of investment and financing recovery falling short of expectations, risk of R&D failure, risk of worsening competitive landscape, risk of commercialization falling short of expectations