Komo: Raising the ASMPT (00522) target price to HK$225 memory TCB market share is expected to increase

The Zhitong Finance App learned that J.P. Morgan Chase released a research report stating that the ASMPT (00522) 2026 and 2027 revenue forecasts were raised to HK$18.4 billion and HK$21.5 billion, net profit forecasts were adjusted to $1,785 billion (down 2%) and HK$2,746 billion (up 1%), and earnings forecasts per share were HK$4.27 and HK$6.56. The target price was raised from HK$175 to HK$225, maintaining the “Overweight” rating.

ASMPT's stock price has outperformed the Hang Seng Technology Index since announcing its first-quarter results in April, reflecting increased momentum in the TCB and optoelectronics industries, as well as the recovery of mainstream business. The bank anticipates that TCB equipment will have further upside in the overall market, mainly benefiting from the stronger expansion of CowOS/HBM from 2027 to 2028, increased production capacity for OSAT for 2.5D packages, and delays in HBM stack migration to maintain TCB's correlation for a longer period of time. It believes that ASMPT will maintain its dominant position in logical TCB and increase its market share in memory TCB. It is estimated that the overall TCB market share will reach 30% to 40%.

Under strict cost control, operating leverage is evident. The bank expects ASMPT's profit to increase 97%, 54% and 23% year-on-year from 2026 to 2028. The upside in the medium term may come from Intel's increased investment in EMIB, the acceleration of COWOS production capacity construction in China, and the potential divestment of the SMT business and re-investment in advanced packaging.