Money Forward, Inc. (TSE:3994) Just Reported Half-Year Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

As you might know, Money Forward, Inc. (TSE:3994) recently reported its half-yearly numbers. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at JP¥29b, statutory losses exploded to JP¥23.06 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the ten analysts covering Money Forward are now predicting revenues of JP¥60.6b in 2026. If met, this would reflect an okay 7.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 88% to JP¥9.31 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥60.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥8.34 in 2026. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a solid gain to earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

View our latest analysis for Money Forward

The consensus price target was unchanged at JP¥4,640, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Money Forward at JP¥5,800 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥3,500. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Money Forward's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 17% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 27% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 10% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Money Forward's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Money Forward's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥4,640, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Money Forward analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Money Forward has 2 warning signs (and 1 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.