Omdia: The global recorded music market will exceed US$56 billion by 2030, and China is expected to rise to second place in the world

The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to Omdia's latest forecast, the global recorded music retail market sales are expected to reach 48.3 billion US dollars in 2026, surpass 50 billion US dollars in 2027, and further increase to 56.8 billion US dollars by 2030.

According to the latest forecast, the global recorded music retail market will continue to grow, and 2026 will be the 12th year in a row that the industry will achieve annual sales growth. It is expected that by the end of 2028, the number of years where the recorded music retail market achieved revenue growth this century will surpass the number of years where revenue declined for the first time.

Recorded music retail market revenue according to Omdia includes consumer spending on physical and digital music products and services, as well as industry revenue from advertising, performance rights (performance rights), and synchronous licensing (synchronization).

Among them, music subscription platforms such as Spotify, Apple Music, and YouTube Music will continue to be the main driving force for market growth. Retail revenue from subscription services is expected to increase 7.2% year over year in 2026, from US$28.4 billion in 2025 to US$30.5 billion. Subscription service sales are expected to exceed $37 billion by 2030, and the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the period 2026 to 2030 is expected to be 5.4%.

Figure: Global recorded music retail market sales in 2026 and 2030

Note: “Other” includes performance rights revenue (Performance Rights), Synchronization (Synchronization), digital downloads, and other digital business revenue.

In the next five years, advertising revenue is expected to grow faster than physical music sales, and the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is expected to be 4.3% and 3.4%, respectively. However, physical music sales will still be the second-largest source of revenue for the recorded music market.

Although consumer spending on physical music products is expected to continue to grow over the next five years, the annual growth rate will gradually slow down to only 1.9% by 2030, when physical music sales will reach 8.3 billion US dollars. Meanwhile, audio and video ad revenue is expected to grow 5.6% to $5.3 billion in 2026, and further increase to $6.2 billion in 2030.

Omdia anticipates that China will continue to rise in the ranking of the global recorded music market over the next five years. China surpassed France in 2022 to reach the top five in the world for the first time; it is expected to surpass the UK in 2028 and surpass Japan in 2029. By 2030, China's recorded music retail market revenue is expected to account for 8.7% of the global market, up from 5.8% in 2025.

The US will remain the world's largest recorded music market, but its global market share is expected to drop from 40.3% in 2025 to 38.4% in 2030.

Simon Dyson, Senior Principal Analyst (Senior Principal Analyst) at Omdia, said, “Our latest predictions have brought full confidence to the music industry, and the future development prospects of the market are still optimistic. “Over the next five years, sales in the global recorded music retail market will continue to reach new highs, and it is expected to break the $60 billion mark at the beginning of the next decade.”

Dyson added, “China will become the second-largest music market in the world, which is significant for the entire industry. China has long been regarded as one of the most promising emerging markets for the global music industry, and the latest forecasts suggest that China is now continuously creating substantial commercial value for the global music industry.”