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To own Amgen, you have to believe its diversified biologics and autoimmune portfolio can keep generating strong cash flows despite pricing pressure, biosimilar competition and heavy R&D needs. The recent Class II recalls of Sensipar and Corlanor highlight manufacturing and compliance risk, but at this stage they do not appear to alter the key near term catalyst of executing on late stage launches or the central risk around pricing and loss of exclusivity.
The most relevant recent announcement here is Amgen’s reiteration of its 2026 guidance, with expected revenue of US$37.1–US$38.5 billion and GAAP EPS of US$15.62–US$17.10. That outlook was issued before the July recalls and implicitly assumes stable operations and regulatory compliance. How management updates or reaffirms this guidance after resolving the Sensipar and Corlanor issues will be important context for judging whether these quality lapses stay contained or point to a deeper operational problem.
But for all the optimism around guidance, investors should be aware of how quickly confidence can shift if repeat quality issues...
Read the full narrative on Amgen (it's free!)
Amgen’s narrative projects $40.1 billion revenue and $9.9 billion earnings by 2029.
Uncover how Amgen's forecasts yield a $352.23 fair value, in line with its current price.
Some of the most optimistic analysts were expecting Amgen to reach about US$44.4 billion of revenue and US$13.2 billion of earnings by 2029, yet the recent recalls highlight that even a pipeline led growth story can be more fragile than those forecasts suggest, so it is worth comparing these bullish assumptions with more cautious views before you decide what you believe.
Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Amgen - why the stock might be worth just $352.23!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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