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To own Viva Energy, you generally need to believe its mix of refining, retail fuels and convenience can recover from recent losses and support more stable cash flow over time. Sally Martin’s appointment looks incrementally positive for refining risk oversight and safety governance, but it is unlikely to change the key near term swing factor, which remains exposure to volatile refining margins and oil prices. The biggest current risk is that continued losses and high capital needs pressure the balance sheet and dividends.
The most relevant recent announcement alongside Martin’s appointment is the weak FY25 result, with a net loss of A$421.1 million and interest not well covered by earnings. Against this backdrop, a more experienced and energy focused board, including Martin and earlier additions such as Dr Sarah Ryan, could matter for decisions on capex, Geelong refinery risk and how hard Viva leans into the capital intensive convenience and mobility rollout.
Yet beneath the apparent progress, investors should be aware that Viva’s reliance on traditional fuels and a loss making base still leave it exposed to...
Read the full narrative on Viva Energy Group (it's free!)
Viva Energy Group's narrative projects A$31.9 billion revenue and A$304.8 million earnings by 2029. This requires 3.8% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about A$726 million from -A$421.1 million today.
Uncover how Viva Energy Group's forecasts yield a A$2.77 fair value, a 19% upside to its current price.
The most bearish analysts were assuming Viva would only reach A$43.1 million in earnings on flat A$28.5 billion revenues by 2029, so compared with that more cautious view, Martin’s appointment could either ease concerns about refining risk or highlight how much still depends on execution and future policy shifts.
Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Viva Energy Group - why the stock might be worth just A$2.64!
Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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