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    Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) Could Be 12% Undervalued As Retail And LNG Interest Builds

    Simply Wall St·07/15/2026 06:32:27
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    Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) is back in focus after its share price moved alongside a stronger S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index, with investors weighing sector sentiment, policy settings, and the company’s retail and LNG exposure.

    See our latest analysis for Origin Energy.

    At A$10.47, Origin Energy’s share price has risen 2.15% over the day and 3.15% over the week, but is down 5.59% over the month and 14.11% over 90 days, while the 5 year total shareholder return of 206.61% points to a very strong longer term contribution from dividends and reinvestment.

    Recent moves reflect a mix of sector driven swings, such as the utilities pullback after a peer downgrade, and company specific factors, including Origin’s customer refund commitments and ongoing focus on retail energy and LNG earnings. Together, these are influencing how investors think about its growth potential and risk profile.

    If Origin Energy’s recent move has you reassessing the sector, this could be a useful moment to see what else is on the radar with our 34 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

    Bulls point to Origin Energy’s long track record of total returns and A$16,480.0m in revenue, while bears highlight recent share price weakness and regulatory scrutiny. How do the current valuation markers stack up against those competing stories?

    Most Popular Narrative: 12.3% Undervalued

    On this view, Origin Energy’s A$10.47 share price sits below a narrative fair value of A$11.94, with the gap explained by detailed cash flow and earnings assumptions.

    The company's capital-intensive investments in renewables, storage, and international software platforms (Kraken/Octopus) are being valued as sources of near-term EBITDA growth, yet these ventures may face execution risks and cost overruns, which could compress return on capital and drag on future earnings.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Analysts are effectively trading off modest revenue expectations against higher margins, a richer earnings multiple, and steady share count creep. The tension between cautious top line assumptions and firmer profitability targets sits at the heart of this A$11.94 fair value. Investors who want to see how those moving parts fit together may find the full narrative useful.

    Result: Fair Value of A$11.94 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, Origin Energy’s narrative could shift quickly if its capital intensive renewables and digital projects underperform, or if LNG cash flows are affected by price or regulatory changes.

    Find out about the key risks to this Origin Energy narrative.

    Next Steps

    Given the mixed sentiment around Origin Energy, this is a good time to look through the numbers yourself and weigh the risk reward trade off. To see both sides clearly, review the 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond Origin Energy?

    Once you have formed a view on Origin Energy, do not stop there. Broaden your watchlist with a few targeted stock ideas that fit different goals.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.