Earnings Preview | ASML.US (ASML.US) Q2 Earnings Report Is About to be Released “AI Faith” Ushers in a Key Test

The Zhitong Finance App learned that lithography giant ASML.US (ASML.US) will announce the results for the second quarter of 2026 on July 15 (Wednesday). Investors will keep a close eye on Asmack executives' comments on artificial intelligence (AI) demand and future trends.

The global semiconductor sector has recently experienced sharp turbulence, and market differences over the sustainability of the AI computing power cycle have intensified. Asmack's earnings report has also become a critical test of faith in this round of AI technology markets. As the only manufacturer in the world that can mass-produce EUV lithography machines, Asmat's orders and performance directly reflect the desire of global fabs to expand production. The agency predicts that, driven by strong demand for semiconductors, Asmack is expected to raise its annual sales guidelines for the second time within the year.

Q2 Performance Preview

The market expects Asmack's Q2 sales to be 8.83 billion euros (about 10.08 billion US dollars). This forecast is within the company's previously announced guidance of 8.4 billion to 9 billion euros, and is higher than the company's 7.69 billion euros in the same period last year.

The global artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure boom has triggered a rush to buy high-end computing power chips, and Asmack is benefiting from this because chip makers need more equipment to meet market demand. Memory chip makers SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron (MU.US) are increasing production capacity. TSM.US, which manufactures chips for Nvidia (NVDA.US), is also expanding production, and the recovery of Intel's (INTC.US) foundry business is also expected to further boost demand for equipment.

Visible Alpha estimates that gross profit, the core indicator of the semiconductor industry that the market is paying close attention to, will record 4.59 billion euros, up from 4.13 billion euros in the same period last year. Asma's gross margin is expected to drop slightly from 53.7% to about 51.9%, near the upper limit of the 51% — 52% guideline given by the company.

The market expects Asmack's net profit for the second quarter to be 2.63 billion euros, up from 2.29 billion euros in the same period last year.

The pursuit of artificial intelligence and expectations of a continued boom in chips have driven global semiconductor stocks to new highs in recent months. However, before Asmack announced its results, market concerns about the sustainability of AI capital expenditure intensified, which dragged Asmack shares down 10% in July.

Despite this, Asmack's stock price has risen 67% since this year, consolidating its position as the listed company with the highest market capitalization in Europe. However, the stock's performance still lags behind the 78% increase in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Applied Materials (AMAT.US), Fanlin Group (LRCX.US), and KLAC.US (KLAC.US) have all increased by more than 90% this year.

Guidelines have attracted much attention

Benefiting from strong demand in the semiconductor industry, the market expects Asmack to raise its annual sales guidelines for the second time in the year. The company raised its guidelines in April of this year. The current annual sales target range is 36 billion to 40 billion euros, up from 32.67 billion euros in 2025.

UBS analysts said that Asmack may raise the guidelines to the higher end of the range, and may even slightly exceed that range. J.P. Morgan analyst Sandeep Deshpande also said in another report that deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machine shipments were strong, and Asmack is expected to raise its annual performance guidelines again.

Asmack CEO Christophe Fouquet said in April that investment in AI infrastructure has led to a situation where the supply of chips is in short supply. As demand for AI has greatly boosted the prices of memory and memory chips, the supply of chips continues to be scarce, and Apple has even raised the price of some products as a result. Micron Technology executives said last month that the tight pattern of chip supply and demand will continue until at least 2027. Investors will pay close attention to the statements of Asmack executives on future AI demand and development trends.

A lot of prequel songs on Wall Street

Despite the recent earthquake in the global semiconductor sector, Wall Street analysts are still optimistic about Asmack's prospects.

J.P. Morgan Chase recently released a research report giving Asmack an “gain” rating. The target price is 2,200 US dollars. This target price has room for an increase of about 24% compared to Asmack's latest closing price of $1775.64. The bank explained that Asmack is the only supplier of EUV lithography equipment in the world. With the continuous increase in the average price of EUV equipment (ASP), its share of the lithography equipment market is expected to exceed 80%-89%, continuing its leading edge over the past ten years; it is expected that the high-NA (high numerical aperture) EUV technology upgrade, which will be promoted starting in 2027, will further increase the investment in lithography equipment required per wafer. At the same time, the EUV penetration rate in the DRAM sector continues to increase, and it will also become a new driving force for growth.

J.P. Morgan also believes that the most critical issue in Asmack's current performance will be how management evaluates the growth prospects for 2027. Furthermore, any information on production capacity planning for 2028 and beyond will receive great attention from the market.

Seeking Alpha writer Bristlemoon Capital believes that semiconductor equipment is currently the most valuable segmented circuit in the semiconductor sector, and Asmack is the preferred target. The explosion in demand for computing power and memory chips will drive capital expenditure on wafer manufacturing equipment (WFE) into a long-term boom cycle.

According to Tipranks data, overall, Wall Street analysts gave Asma a “strong buy” rating, with an average target price of $2169.67, which is 22% higher than the current level.