Debon Securities: Technology, capital, policy and demand drive resonance and controllable nuclear fusion into a period of rapid development

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Debon Securities released a research report stating that currently controllable nuclear fusion has accelerated to an inflection point of engineering implementation, and it is recommended to prioritize the upstream and midstream circuit where value is concentrated in the industrial chain: one is upstream high-temperature superconducting materials, which are the core breaking variables for compact devices; the second is core equipment such as midstream superconducting magnets, vacuum chambers, tungsten-based deflectors, and special pulse power supplies. Domestic suppliers may be the first to redeem order dividends. Focus on tritium proliferation in the medium to long term, and the direction of research and development of new plasma materials.

The main views of Debon Securities are as follows:

The industry has entered an inflection point of engineering, and the quadruple driving resonance of technology, capital, policy and demand

As the ultimate energy solution with abundant fuel supply, zero carbon emissions, and inherent safety, controlled nuclear fusion is moving from the basic research cycle to a critical stage of engineering verification and commercialization exploration. On the technology side, the maturity of high-temperature superconducting materials and the deep application of AI in plasma control and simulation iteration have significantly improved R&D efficiency; on the capital side, the cumulative financing of the global fusion sector reached 9.77 billion US dollars in 2025, private capital accounting for more than 90%, and domestic private circuits have accumulated more than 10 billion yuan in public financing in 2025-2026; on the policy side, many countries around the world have intensively introduced special strategies, and China included controlled nuclear fusion in the core circuit of the “15th Five-Year Plan”. The atomic energy law clarifies the independent regulatory framework; on the demand side, the explosion of global AI computing power drives a high increase in electricity demand for data centers, Valley, Microsoft Overseas technology giants such as Ge took the lead in securing fusion power through long-term power purchase agreements (PPA). Among them, Microsoft signed a 50MW power supply agreement with Helion and a 200MW procurement agreement with Google and CFS, providing early order verification and clear demand guidance for commercial fusion.

Tokamak routes lead the way, and multi-technology routes form a diverse competition pattern

Currently, the entire industry faces three major barriers: plasma restraint and maintenance, radiation-resistant and heat-flux resistant materials, and a closed tritium fuel cycle. With decades of engineering accumulation and a high proportion of global installations, Tokamak is currently a mainstream technology route with clear commercialization prospects; breakthroughs in high-temperature superconducting magnets drive device miniaturization, cost reduction and efficiency, and are the core disruptors of the commercialization of the Tokamak route. Differentiated routes such as simulators, field inversion, and laser fusion each have advantages and simultaneously advance technical verification.

The market pattern is perfect, and the pace of industrialization implementation is clear

Controlled nuclear fusion currently forms a dualistic development pattern between major scientific engineering and private commercial enterprises. International public projects represented by ITER have huge investment volume. The core goal is to verify the viability of fusion projects, drive 100 billion equipment R&D and procurement, and establish a unified global industrial chain standard and supply chain foundation, which is the foundation for industrial development. Private fusion companies are rapidly expanding the circuit, developing compact low-cost devices such as overseas CFS, Helion, domestic energy singularity, and Star Ring Energy, etc., covering multiple routes such as Tokamak, FRC, and Z convolution. The target is grid-connected power generation around 2030, attracting strategic investment and forward power purchase agreements (PPA) from technology giants, and the industry has sufficient vitality; domestic policies promote the three-step “hot reactor - fast reactor - fusion reactor” nuclear energy strategy, and the pace of implementation is clear.

The value of the industrial chain is concentrated in the upstream and midstream, and domestic support is the first to benefit from order volume

The value of the fusion industry chain is highly concentrated in upstream core materials and midstream key equipment. According to the Shenzhen Enterprise Investment Industry Research Institute, high-temperature superconducting magnet systems account for 46% or more of the cost of fusion reactor core equipment, or the most definitive segment for the next 5-10 years. Relying on the technological spillover of the ITER project, China has built a complete industrial system covering the upper, middle and lower reaches, and the ability to localize core components is outstanding. With the intensive launch of tenders for major local devices such as BEST and CFEDR, manufacturers of upstream superconducting materials, midstream vacuum chamber components, and special power supplies may be the first to redeem order dividends.

Risk warning: Technological breakthroughs fall short of expectations, commercialization falls short of expectations, and competition for other new energy sources intensifies.