Guohai Securities: AI computing power drives optical module market equipment that is both driven by AI production expansion and generational technology upgrades

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guohai Securities released a research report stating that it is predicted that 1.6T will enter the rapid release stage from 2026 and will become an important growth engine for the next generation of high-speed optical modules. Optical module manufacturing covers five major aspects: patching, bonding, optical coupling, packaging and testing. According to the bank's estimates, the corresponding equipment investment for each 1 million optical module production lines is about 2.6-540 million yuan. The optical module equipment link is driven by both AI production expansion and generational technology upgrades, maintaining the industry's “recommended” rating.

Guohai Securities's main views are as follows:

The global optical module market is in a growth cycle driven by AI computing power

According to the bank's estimates, the global optical module market is about 10.9 billion US dollars in 2023, and is expected to increase to about 41.7 billion US dollars in 2028, with a CAGR of about 30.8% over the next five years. According to Cignal AI, in terms of shipments, the total number of 400G and above high-speed digital communication modules will be shipped in 2025, of which 800G will be the main driving force for growth. The bank predicts that 1.6T will enter the rapid release stage from 2026 and become an important growth engine for the next generation of high-speed optical modules.

Leading manufacturers have significantly expanded their production capacity

According to the company's annual report, Zhongji Xuchuang will produce 15.36 million optical modules in 2024 (up 125.6% year on year) and 23.76 million in 2025 (up 54.7% year on year); Xinyisheng will produce 16.34 million units in 2025; according to the Coherentfy2026q3 earnings conference, the Coherent 6-inch InP production line is expected to quadruple its production capacity in two years.

Optical module manufacturing covers the five major aspects of patching, bonding, optical coupling, packaging and testing

According to Sihan Industrial Research Institute, in 2025, optical coupling equipment is the most valuable link, accounting for about 40%; total test equipment accounts for 27%, of which R&D testing is 15% and reliability testing; patch, packaging and bonding equipment account for 20%, 12%, and 1% respectively. High-speed upgrades will continue to increase demand for high-value equipment. According to the bank's estimates, the corresponding equipment investment for each 1 million optical module production lines is about 2.6-540 million yuan.

In terms of the competitive landscape

In 2024, the global CR3 for coupling equipment is Radium Technology, Qianqi Intelligence, and FiConTec; overseas companies account for about 84% of the test equipment market, and Linkcom Instruments accounts for about 9.9%. CPO technology moves the optical engine forward from the pluggable module to the switching ASIC package board, and the power consumption is expected to drop from about 15 pj/bit to less than 5 pj/bit. Nvidia Spectrum-X silicon optical CPO switches will enter full production in 2026.

Risk warning: 1. Technological maturity risk; 2. Downstream capital expenditure falls short of expectations; 3. Market competition enhances risk; 4. Industrial implementation risk; 5. Geopolitical risk