Crude Oil Eyes Rebound as US-Iran Attacks Pick Up Amid Falling Inventories

Crude oil is eying a rebound as tensions between the US and Iran rise at a time when inventories are falling. WTI ended last week at $71.50, while Brent, the global benchmark, was trading at $75.22. 

WTI and Brent Jumps on Hyperliquid

The two benchmarks are rising today on Hyperliquid, the popular perpetual DEX trading platform. WTI rose to $73.8, while Brent moved to $78. 

At the same time, traders on Polymarket and Kalshi predict that oil prices will continue rising. A Polymarket poll shows that WTI will jump to $80 this month.

Oil is facing two major risks. The US and Iran have resumed their fighting, with the later closing the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM confirmed that it launched the third stage of attacks on Saturday. 

At 7:15 p.m. ET today, U.S. Central Command forces began launching the third round of strikes this week against Iran after Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces blatantly attacked M/V GFS Galaxy, a Cyprus-flagged container ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz. A civilian crew…

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 11, 2026

In a statement on Sunday, Iran said that enemy projectiles had targeted Qeshm and the port city of Bandar Abbas. The US targeted the country’s power infrastructure, with the electricity grid seeing a 4,200 MW reduction in power.

These attacks will likely continue this week after President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire “over.” 

Any further escalation would have a significant impact on the energy sector, given that inventories in key countries are at dangerously low levels. When announcing the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), Trump specifically cited these low inventory levels.

Most importantly, continued attacks on Iran’s infrastructure will likely see it retaliate against other Gulf energy infrastructure. Such a move would make it hard for these countries to ramp up oil production once the war ends. 

Iran also has other tools to cause pain in the energy industry. It may decide to close the Red Sea, either directly or through Ansah Allah, popularly known as Houthis.

Adding more pressure to the energy sector is the fact that Ukraine is now targeting Russian energy infrastructure in its attacks. It has bombed some of the biggest Russian refineries and tens of oil tankers.

WTI Crude Oil Price Chart Points to More Gains

The daily chart shows that WTI price is showing some short-term bottoming signs. For example, the two lines of the MACD indicator have made a bullish crossover and are pointing upwards. 

The Relative Strength Index has moved from the oversold level of 26 to the current 38 and is pointing upwards. Therefore, a resumption of kinetic activity between the US and Iran will likely push WTI much higher, potentially to $85. 

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