Everbright Securities: The growth rate of express delivery volume stabilized in May, and unit prices rose steadily under domestic rolls

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Everbright Securities released a research report saying that in May 2026, the number of express delivery companies nationwide was 18.3 billion, +5.66% over the same period; in January-May 2026, the volume was 82.87 billion units, an increase of 5.2% over the previous year. There are two factors driving the change in unit prices from negative to positive in the industry: first, the industry's “reverse internal circulation” boosting effect is highly sustainable; second, fierce price competition in the same period last year has pushed prices to a month-on-month low, which laid the foundation for the shift from negative to positive in May of this year. CR8 in the express delivery industry continued to maintain a positive year-on-year growth trend, reflecting the continued increase in the share of leading companies, and the market share of leading companies in 26Q1 was relatively stable.

The main views of Everbright Securities are as follows:

The year-on-year growth rate of the industry increased steadily in May, and the growth rate of e-commerce express delivery was impressive

1) The entire industry: In May 2026, the number of express delivery companies nationwide was 18.3 billion units, +5.66% year-on-year; in January-May 2026, the volume was 82.87 billion units, an increase of 5.2% over the previous year. The bank believes that online e-commerce consumption is still active, stabilizing the chassis growth rate, and factors such as the “state subsidy” policy driving the smooth operation of the consumer market and the continued expansion of sinking markets such as rural areas have led to a steady upward trend in the express delivery industry's volume growth rate. 2) E-commerce Express: The year-on-year growth rate of each company's volume increased significantly compared to April. Among them, Yuantong increased from +1.23% in April to +10.60%, Yunda from -4.14% to -0.52%, and Shentong from +13.72% to +18.77%. 3) Direct Express: The year-on-year growth rate of SF Express's business volume fell from -3.0% to -4.20%.

Unit prices in the industry have been growing steadily, and the strength and sustainability of express delivery's “anti-domestic roll” has exceeded expectations

1) All industries: In May 2026, the express delivery industry revenue was +9.47% year over year, and single ticket revenue was +3.61% year over year. According to the bank, there are two factors driving the change in prices from negative to positive: first, the industry's “reverse internal circulation” boosting effect is highly sustainable; second, fierce price competition in the same period last year has driven prices to a month-on-month low, which laid the foundation for the change from negative to positive in May of this year. 2) E-commerce Express: Yuantong/Yunda/Shentong's single ticket revenue in May 2026 was -3.77%/+7.29%/+9.74%, respectively; in January-May, single ticket revenue was -0.75%/+9.37%/+13.43%, respectively. 3) Direct delivery: SF Express's revenue in May was +4.80%, and in January-May, single ticket revenue was +2.83% year-on-year. SF Express's volume structure continued to be optimized, unit prices changed from negative to positive year over year, and the effect of the “profit plan” gradually became apparent.

The concentration of the industry has slowed slightly, and the market share of leading companies in 26Q1 is relatively stable

From the beginning of 2022 to the end of 2024, due to relatively moderate price competition under policy supervision, the share was slowly concentrated at the top. 1) All industries: From January to May 2026, the CR8 of the express delivery industry was 87.1, up 0.1 year on year. Since January 2025, CR8 in the express delivery industry has maintained a positive year-on-year growth trend, reflecting the continued increase in the share of leading companies. 2) E-commerce Express: The market share of Yuantong/Yunda/Shentong/Jitu in Q1 in 2026 (calculated by volume, same below) was 16.01%/11.96%/13.92%/11.32%, respectively, with changes of +0.12pct/-0.02pct/+0.41pct/+0.39pct from 25q4. The market share of leading express companies in 26Q1 was relatively stable month-on-month. Shentong merged with Danniao Logistics from November to December '25. As the leading provider of quality express delivery and reverse logistics services in China, this merger directly expanded Shentong's business map. 3) Direct Express: SF Express's market share in Q1 2026 reached 7.77%, a month-on-month change of -0.65pct from 25Q4.

Risk analysis: economic fluctuations, industry policy changes, irrational competition, oil price fluctuations, etc.