Oil Is Below $76. So Why Is Bitcoin Still Below $65,000?

The price of Brent crude oil surged after the start of the current Iran conflict on Feb. 28 and the resulting Strait of Hormuz closure. It jumped 63%, from $72.28 on Feb. 27 to $118.35 at its 2026 high on March 30. De-escalation helped drive the price back down. But President Donald Trump's declaration that the ceasefire is over is once again driving oil prices higher.

Nonetheless, Brent crude is currently just below $76 a barrel (as of July 9). In theory, a lower price should be excellent news for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), as less inflationary pressure, at least compared to earlier in the year, supports the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates. But this isn't the case, as the central bank's latest meeting revealed.

So, why is Bitcoin still trading well below $65,000?

The Fed's unaccommodating posture

Bitcoin has tanked 30% in 2026, and it's 50% off its peak from last October. The current bear market is nothing new from a historical perspective, but the digital asset is getting no help on the macroeconomic front.

The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark Fed Funds rate unchanged, within a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, at its last meeting in June. Many officials made the case for future rate hikes. A resilient labor market, coupled with energy inflation, supports the central bank's view that it's not smart to run with looser monetary policy in the current environment.

As a high-risk asset that produces no yield, Bitcoin suffers in this situation. Investors are less inclined to allocate capital to opportunities with greater uncertainty, even though they may offer higher upside, when the Federal Reserve is operating with tighter policy.

Bitcoin doesn't have a fair value

Equity investors are familiar with analyzing businesses that sell products and services, generate revenues, and produce cash flows. There are methods of calculating a fair value. This isn't possible with Bitcoin, even though investors try various frameworks.

Instead of getting caught up in short-term price targets, it's best to adopt a time horizon that looks out a decade or more into the future. With this perspective, the single most important data point investors should track is money supply, in my view.

Since January 2009, when the first Bitcoin block was mined, the U.S.'s M2 money supply has expanded by 178%. The federal government injected capital into the economy during the 2008-09 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Even in non-recessionary periods, the money supply and debt burden keep rising due to ongoing fiscal deficits.

Going forward, there is absolutely no reason to believe that this trend will reverse. That backdrop provides Bitcoin with liquidity that can support a much higher price decades into the future.

Neil Patel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.