The list of “think tanks” for the Federal Reserve's reform has been revealed: Wall Street and academics gather, and all members of the AI team are “optimists”

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh officially announced the list of members of the five external task forces on Thursday. This “think tank”, which brings together Wall Street giants, business leaders, academic authorities, and former central bank officials, will conduct a comprehensive review of the Federal Reserve's operating mechanism on core topics such as communication mechanisms, data governance, balance sheet management, productivity and employment, and inflation assessment frameworks. Among them, the working group focusing on the economic impact of artificial intelligence (AI) is particularly remarkable because the members are highly consistent in their positions.

Walsh said, “I am very honored that top academics from different disciplines can work with us to improve the performance of the Federal Reserve. The goal is clear: to ensure that the Federal Reserve is in the best position to achieve its policy goals during this critical period.” As part of the comprehensive assessment of monetary policy promised by Walsh, these working groups will explore a wide range of areas, from inflation trends to the impact of AI, and “start from basic principles, ask sharp questions, review current practices, and evaluate alternatives.”

According to the Federal Reserve's statement, each working group will “operate independently, adhere to the principles of factual basis, honest feedback, and strict evidence seeking”, and finally report the research results to the Federal Open Market Committee. Internal Federal Reserve staff will provide logistical and professional support to all working groups.

The specific lineup of the five major groups

The list announced this time covers diverse ideologies and backgrounds. The specific groups and members are as follows:

Communication Strategy Group: Peter Fisher (Professor of Practice at Washington University's Foster School of Business), Amino Fraga (founder of Gávea Investimentos, former president of the Bank of Brazil), Mervyn King (former Bank of England Governor).

Balance Sheet Policy Group: Karen Dinan (Harvard University economist), Raghuram Rajan (former Governor of the Bank of India), Jeremy Stein (former Federal Reserve Governor).

Data group: Doug Macmillan (former CEO of Walmart (WMT.US)), Raj Chetty (Harvard University economist), Kevin Murphy (University of Chicago economist).

Productivity and Employment Group: Mark Anderson (venture capitalist), Charles Jones (Stanford University economist), Asha Sharma (Executive Vice President of Microsoft (MSFT.US) and CEO of Xbox).

Inflation Framework Group: Greg Manquin (former chairman of the White House Committee of Economic Advisers), William White (Canadian economist who warned of the 2008 financial crisis), Thomas Sargent (NYU economist, Nobel Prize winner).

AI workgroup: like-minded optimists

In the above group, the Productivity and Employment Group, which is responsible for “evaluating the impact of new general technologies, including AI, on the economy and providing information for the Federal Reserve's policy decisions,” showed a high degree of agreement in their members' positions — all three external advisors are convinced that AI will be a transformative technology with a profound impact on growth and productivity, which coincides with Walsh's own long-term views.

Walsh is a long-time advocate of AI's transformative potential. At his first press conference after taking office as chairman in June, he said that the adoption of AI “is probably the most important change that has occurred in the economic, business, and household fields since I became an adult.” He said in 2025 that he believes the advancement of AI will form a reason for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates because it can help the economy grow rapidly without triggering inflation. The members of this working group were all personally selected by Walsh.

Panelist and venture capitalist Mark Anderson was Walsh's personal partner for many years. After leaving the Federal Reserve in 2011, Walsh managed venture capital for investor Stanley Druckenmiller, which not only broadened his contacts in Silicon Valley, but also enriched his personal wealth. Anderson built up his wealth by developing web browsers in his early years, and is now one of the most passionate evangelists in AI. In his recent podcast, he described silicon-based AI chips as “We turned sand into thoughts.”

The economist Charles Jones also harbors strong optimism about Silicon Valley. He recently took a leave of absence from Stanford University to join a research institute under the leading AI company Anthropic. Jones pointed out in a recent academic paper that the average American growth rate has remained around 2% for a long time, but “if AI eventually automates almost all weak links in the economy, the economic growth rate may accelerate significantly, and the annual growth rate is expected to exceed 5%.” He said bluntly that AI “is likely to become the most transformative technology of modern times.”

Another member, Xbox CEO Asha Sharma, showed a more pragmatic optimism. Although she said she “absolutely believes in AI,” as a business leader, she rarely chose not to prioritize AI features on Xbox consoles because “our console players aren't excited about that kind of experience.” However, that doesn't mean she has any doubts.

Internal doubts and hidden concerns about demand shocks

Despite Walsh's intention to push the Federal Reserve to change its views by introducing external wisdom through the Working Group, questions and caution still exist within the Federal Open Market Committee, which actually holds the right to vote interest rates. The minutes of the June meeting released this week show that members of the committee discussed whether AI can improve productivity. Some participants agreed with the view that productivity will accelerate, but they emphasized that “there is still considerable uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of potential productivity gains,” and that this increase is expected to lag behind the ongoing stimulation of demand for AI applications.

Meanwhile, US tech companies' full bets on AI have begun to bring heat to the economy. New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams clearly expressed concern on Thursday, saying the AI boom is driving up electricity and semiconductor prices. He described the price increase as steep as a “hockey bat,” doubling or even tripling the price of some components. Williams pointed out that AI constituted a “demand shock,” and it is unclear whether supply can grow at the same time to curb inflation.

According to reports, the Federal Reserve has not given a hard time limit for the task force to complete its tasks, but Walsh previously stated that it expects to push forward related reforms within this year, and that the various groups are expected to complete the work before the end of the year. The Federal Reserve's next interest rate meeting is scheduled to be held at the end of July, and the market generally expects interest rates to remain unchanged at that time.