Is agilon health (AGL) Fully Valued Following Its Raised 2026 Outlook And Q1 Profit?

agilon health (AGL) is drawing fresh attention after raising its 2026 revenue outlook to a range of $5.68b to $5.81b and reporting positive net income for the first quarter.

See our latest analysis for agilon health.

The share price of agilon health has been volatile, with a very large 90 day share price return and strong year to date gains, even though the stock is down on a 1 day and 7 day basis. Over longer horizons, the 1 year total shareholder return is positive, while 3 and 5 year total shareholder returns remain sharply negative, so recent momentum follows a much weaker long term record.

If agilon health’s move has you looking across healthcare, this could be a useful moment to see what else is gaining attention in Medicare and care-delivery models via 40 healthcare AI stocks

agilon health’s stock now trades well above the average analyst price target, while some valuation models still see meaningful upside. The real question is where fair value sits between those opposing signals.

Most Popular Narrative: 78.3% Overvalued

At a last close of $107.60 versus a narrative fair value of $60.36, agilon health screens as heavily priced on this widely followed framework.

In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 29.7x on those 2029 earnings, up from -4.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Healthcare industry at 23.5x.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what underpins that steep P/E jump, the profit swing, and the revenue path that hold this story together? The full narrative lays out the precise growth, margin, and valuation assumptions that need to line up for agilon health to meet this fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $60.36 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, agilon health still faces meaningful pressure from persistent losses and leadership uncertainty, which could unsettle payer relationships and stall growth in its Medicare Advantage membership base.

Find out about the key risks to this agilon health narrative.

Another View on agilon health's Valuation

While the analyst narrative describes agilon health as 78.3% overvalued versus a $60.36 fair value, our DCF model points in the opposite direction. On this view, the stock at $107.60 trades about 72.8% below an estimated future cash flow value of $395.41. This represents a very wide gap for investors to consider.

That kind of spread between an analyst target and the SWS DCF model often comes down to different assumptions on margins, growth durability, and discount rates. Which set of inputs do you find more reasonable for agilon health, and why?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Next Steps

With sentiment on agilon health clearly split between risk and reward, use this moment to move quickly, test the assumptions, and weigh the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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