AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Could Be 50% Undervalued As BlueBird And Rakuten News Builds Confidence

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is back in focus after confirming its latest BlueBird satellites are fully operational and securing a large Rakuten-backed joint venture in Japan, supported by substantial government subsidies.

See our latest analysis for AST SpaceMobile.

Despite fresh interest around AST SpaceMobile after the Rakuten joint venture and BlueBird milestones, the stock has remained volatile, with a 7 day share price return of 19.15% and a 30 day share price decline of 20.65%. Over the longer term, investors have seen very large total shareholder returns over three years, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 86.69% signals that momentum has been building despite recent swings.

If AST SpaceMobile has you thinking more broadly about space and communications infrastructure, it could be a good moment to see what else is moving across 52 AI infrastructure stocks

So with AST SpaceMobile now trading slightly above the average analyst price target yet carrying a large estimated intrinsic discount, are you looking at an overlooked opportunity, or at a stock where the market has already priced in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 49.9% Undervalued

According to a widely followed narrative on AST SpaceMobile, a fair value of $170 per share sits well above the last close of $85.13. This gap is driving a strong debate around how much future execution is already reflected in the current price.

The balance sheet is unusually strong for a company at this stage. Several reports around the Q1 release put AST’s cash position at about $3.5 billion as of March 31, 2026, and third-party summaries noted that the company said it does not plan to issue additional convertible debt in 2026. That capital base is a major reason the story remains credible despite the heavy deployment plan.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to understand why this fair value almost doubles the share price? The narrative leans heavily on rapid revenue build, improving margins, and a premium future earnings multiple anchored in telecom scale.

According to HedgeY, the fair value anchor of $170 rests on AST SpaceMobile progressing toward its planned BlueBird constellation, turning carrier partnerships into real service revenue and growing into a larger telecom style platform over time, all discounted using a 7.108% rate.

Result: Fair Value of $170 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the fair value story for AST SpaceMobile still hinges on tight execution. Any slip in BlueBird deployment or slower carrier monetization could quickly challenge this optimistic setup.

Find out about the key risks to this AST SpaceMobile narrative.

Another View: What Multiples Say About AST SpaceMobile

The fair value call around $170 for AST SpaceMobile meets a very different signal when looking at its P/B ratio of 12.2x, compared with 1.6x for the wider US Telecom industry and 12.6x for close peers. That gap suggests a rich price tag, so how much mispricing is really left on the table?

For a closer look at how this valuation line up could evolve over time, and how the current P/B level measures up to fundamentals, check out the See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

Given the mixed signals around AST SpaceMobile, this is a moment to act quickly, review the full picture, and decide where you stand using the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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