Nobel Economist Robert Shiller Warns AI Job Loss Fears Could Become A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller cautioned that widespread fear of artificial intelligence eliminating jobs could worsen economic damage on top of any real job losses AI creates.

Writing in The New York Times story on Monday, Shiller argued that narrative-driven anxiety amplifies the threat beyond what technology alone would cause. He cited a March Quinnipiac poll finding 70% of Americans believe AI will reduce jobs, while a Pew Research survey showed only 16% expect AI to benefit society over the next two decades.

“When millions of people make millions and millions of decisions based upon negative expectations, there is a risk that fear can actually help birth the reality,” Shiller wrote.

Tech Leaders Fanning the Flames

Shiller singled out Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei in his article, who told Axios last May that AI could eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and drive unemployment to 20% within five years, up from the current rate of 4.3%.

Not everyone in Silicon Valley agreed. Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang called that forecast “ridiculous,” arguing such comments risk steering young people away from careers the economy still needs.

In early June, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) amplified the alarm further, warning on X that AI and robotics could wipe out millions of jobs while Congress does “nothing” to protect displaced workers.

The AI job loss debate has gained serious momentum over the last twelve months, with various stakeholders weighing in repeatedly. Apollo Global Management Inc. (NYSE:APO) chief economist Torsten Slok pushed back in a June blog post, citing “zero evidence” of AI-related job losses and pointing to ADP data.

Fear May Be The Real Recession Trigger

The “Narrative Economics” author argued that tech leaders promoting worst-case scenarios risk tipping consumer sentiment into a contraction that hurts their own bottom line.

“Surely, the resulting media attention highlighting how dangerously powerful your AI model is may help you sell more wares, but it may be far harder to do so in a period of recession,” he wrote.

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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.