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    NVIDIA (NVDA) On Cooling Momentum And An AI Narrative That Still Looks Undervalued

    Simply Wall St·06/28/2026 03:20:42
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    How NVIDIA Stock Has Been Performing Recently

    NVIDIA (NVDA) has drawn fresh attention after recent trading, with the stock down 1.6% over the past day and 8.6% over the past week. Shares also declined about 9% over the past month.

    Despite this pullback, NVIDIA shows a gain of roughly 16.6% over the past 3 months and a total return of about 22.2% over the past year. Year to date, the stock is up close to 1.9%, with a market value around US$4.66t based on the latest close of US$192.53.

    See our latest analysis for NVIDIA.

    Recent trading suggests momentum in NVIDIA may be cooling in the short term, with the 30 day share price return down 8.8%, even as the 1 year total shareholder return of 22.2% and 5 year total shareholder return, which is more than 8x, point to a strong longer term record.

    If NVIDIA has you thinking more broadly about the AI supply chain, this is a good moment to scan other potential candidates using the 51 AI infrastructure stocks

    With NVIDIA now down over the past month but still showing large multi year gains, the key question is whether today’s valuation leaves meaningful upside on the table or if the stock already reflects years of future growth.

    Most Popular Narrative: 43.4% Undervalued

    Compared with NVIDIA's last close of $192.53, the most followed narrative on the stock applies a fair value of $339.90, which implies a substantial gap between current price and that narrative valuation.

    $400b revenue also assumes data centre customers (mainly AI model producers/operators) continue to find sufficient revenue and financing to continue investing in better models at pace. Nvidia risks being like a $2,000 smart phone; many customers just find that to be too expensive relative to their incomes, especially when their current phone is almost as good.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious what has to happen for NVIDIA to reach that higher fair value. The narrative leans heavily on future AI data center revenues and very strong profitability. Want to see how those assumptions fit together into one pricing story.

    Result: Fair Value of $339.90 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, NVIDIA’s AI driven narrative still faces clear risks, including potential competition in GPU and software platforms, as well as political or regulatory limits on data center growth.

    Find out about the key risks to this NVIDIA narrative.

    Next Steps

    With NVIDIA attracting both enthusiasm and concern, this is a good time to review the underlying data yourself and decide how you feel about its story. To see the balance of potential upsides and the issues investors are watching closely, start by weighing the 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond NVIDIA?

    If NVIDIA has sharpened your interest in AI and growth, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with fresh ideas sourced directly from powerful Simply Wall St screeners.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.