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To own CDW, you need to believe it can stay a key IT intermediary as customers modernize infrastructure, increasingly around AI, cloud, and security. The latest upgrades tied to stronger enterprise server demand support this near term catalyst, but they do not remove the bigger risks around margin pressure from lower margin hardware mix and limited operating leverage if earnings growth stays modest.
The clearest link to this thesis is Morgan Stanley’s recent upgrade to Overweight, which explicitly cites stronger than expected enterprise server demand and CDW’s server, storage, and networking exposure. Combined with CDW’s expanded US$7,500,000,000 buyback authorization, this improves the backdrop for the stock’s capital return story, yet it does not fully resolve concerns about longer term pressure on hardware margins or shifts in customer buying behavior.
Yet alongside this stronger server story, investors should be aware of the risk that large customers increasingly shift spending directly to OEMs or cloud providers...
Read the full narrative on CDW (it's free!)
CDW's narrative projects $25.0 billion revenue and $1.4 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 3.0% yearly revenue growth and roughly a $0.3 billion earnings increase from $1.1 billion today.
Uncover how CDW's forecasts yield a $147.30 fair value, a 15% upside to its current price.
Some of the most optimistic analysts already assumed CDW could reach about US$26.1 billion in revenue and US$1.6 billion in earnings, which is far more upbeat than consensus, yet this new server driven news could either reinforce or challenge that view depending on how you weigh it against the longer term risk of customers bypassing resellers like CDW.
Explore 5 other fair value estimates on CDW - why the stock might be worth 16% less than the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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