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    BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) Stock Could Be 26.5% Undervalued After Backlog And Contract Wins

    Simply Wall St·06/20/2026 09:30:01
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    Shareholder approval to double authorized share count

    BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) drew fresh attention after shareholders approved doubling the company’s authorized common stock from 500,000,000 to 1,000,000,000 shares at the 2026 annual meeting.

    This kind of change does not alter current ownership on its own. However, it gives the company more flexibility around future capital raises, acquisitions, or stock-based compensation, which existing shareholders will want to watch closely.

    See our latest analysis for BigBear.ai Holdings.

    Alongside the share authorization change, BigBear.ai Holdings has been in focus after reaffirming 2026 revenue guidance, securing a $53 million classified intelligence contract, and reporting a 14% sequential increase in backlog. However, its 1-year total shareholder return is only slightly lower while the 3-year total shareholder return is considerably higher, which suggests that longer term momentum contrasts with the weaker year to date share price return of 32.88%.

    If BigBear.ai’s mix of government contracts and AI platforms has caught your attention, it could be a good moment to scan other AI opportunities through 34 AI small caps

    With BigBear.ai Holdings trading at $3.92, carrying a high valuation score, ongoing losses and a discount to analyst targets, investors are left asking whether there is still upside here or whether the market is already pricing in future growth.

    Most Popular Narrative: 26.5% Undervalued

    With BigBear.ai Holdings closing at $3.92 and the most followed narrative pointing to a fair value of $5.33, the gap between expectations and price is clear.

    With a healthy backlog of $385 million and increased emphasis on multiyear programs, BigBear.ai is positioned to build a stable revenue stream, supporting sustainable growth and improved net margins.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see what backs that confidence in BigBear.ai Holdings? The narrative leans on sustained revenue expansion, margin repair and a future earnings multiple that many investors might find surprising.

    Result: Fair Value of $5.33 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, BigBear.ai’s reliance on lumpy government contracts, combined with continued R&D and SG&A spending that weighs on adjusted EBITDA, could disrupt this underpriced growth narrative.

    Find out about the key risks to this BigBear.ai Holdings narrative.

    Another view on BigBear.ai Holdings valuation

    The community narrative leans on a fair value of $5.33, but BigBear.ai Holdings currently trades on a P/S ratio of 14.7x versus a fair ratio of 1.9x, the US IT industry at 1.8x and peers at 0.3x. That kind of premium raises the question: how much optimism is already in the price?

    See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

    NYSE:BBAI P/S Ratio as at Jun 2026
    NYSE:BBAI P/S Ratio as at Jun 2026

    Next Steps

    If you are wondering whether the current mix of optimism and concern around BigBear.ai Holdings aligns with your own view, take a closer look at the balance of risks and potential rewards to see what stands out in the 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond BigBear.ai Holdings?

    If BigBear.ai Holdings has sharpened your interest in AI and growth stories, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with focused stock ideas built from clear fundamentals.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.