What's Going On With Occidental Petroleum Stock Thursday?

Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:OXY) shares traded higher Thursday as escalating geopolitical tensions and rising crude prices pushed investors deeper into energy stocks.

Energy Leads, OXY Outperforms

The move comes as Energy stands out as the market’s strongest sector, with OXY outperforming even its peers. With only a handful of sectors in the green, capital is rotating into commodity-linked names showing relative strength.

That divergence is stark. Major indices remain under pressure (SPY -0.93%, QQQ -1.30%, DIA -1.01%, IWM -1.25%), reinforcing a defensive shift toward cash-generating, oil-levered companies.

Trump Signals Escalation Risk

Crude prices surged in volatile trading after Trump warned of potential U.S. military action against Iran within the next two to three weeks, dampening expectations for near-term de-escalation.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery jumped 8.2% to $108.36 a barrel, while June Brent crude rose 8% to $109.16.

Trump attributed the surge to alleged Iranian attacks on oil tankers and regional targets, while signaling the U.S. could “hit” Iran “extremely hard” even as diplomatic talks continue.

IEA Warns Of Deepening Supply Shock

The International Energy Agency has flagged escalating risks to global oil markets.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the world has already lost an estimated 12 million barrels per day of oil supply — exceeding the combined impact of the 1973 Arab oil embargo and the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

“The next month, April, will be much worse than March,” Birol said.

Separately, former U.S. Under Secretary of Defense Michèle Flournoy said any resolution is unlikely to result in regime change, instead leaving a hardened, IRGC-aligned government in control — a scenario that could prolong geopolitical risk premiums tied to the Strait of Hormuz.

Technical Analysis

At $64.98, OXY is trading 9.4% above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA), the stock’s average price over the last 20 sessions, which suggests buyers have controlled the short-term trend. It’s also 38.2% above its 100-day SMA, a sign the intermediate uptrend has stayed intact and extended.

Moving average structure is also supportive: the 20-day SMA is above the 50-day SMA, and the golden cross in February points to a longer-term trend shift that has favored upside follow-through. The death cross in November helps explain why the earlier phase of the chart was weaker before the more recent trend reversal took hold.

Moving average convergence divergence (MACD), a trend/momentum measure, is still constructive with the MACD at 3.5575 versus a 3.4217 signal line, which indicates upside momentum is still slightly winning. With the 52-week high set on March 31 and price still below that $67.45 peak, traders are watching whether the stock can retest that area without momentum fading.

• Key Resistance: $67.50 — near the 52-week high area where rallies recently topped out
• Key Support: $52.00 — a prior floor that can act as the “line in the sand” on pullbacks

Sector Performance

OXY is outperforming its Energy peers today, up 4.42% versus the sector’s 2.27% gain, a lead of 2.18 percentage points. That relative strength matters because Energy ranks 1 out of 11 sectors today, so OXY is not only in the right group—it’s also beating the group.

Zooming out, Energy has been trending higher with a 6.62% gain over the past 30 days and a 32.00% gain over the past 90 days. With the broader market red and only a handful of sectors advancing, the sector’s leadership is doing a lot of the heavy lifting for energy names like OXY.

Earnings & Analyst Outlook

Following last quarter’s results, investors are now tracking the path toward the next reporting date on May 5, 2026 (confirmed).

• EPS Estimate: 64 cents (Down from 87 cents YoY)
• Revenue Estimate: $5.50 billion (Down from $6.84 billion YoY)
• Valuation: P/E of 46.1x (Indicates premium valuation relative to peers)

Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Hold Rating with an average price target of $57.53. Recent analyst moves include:

• Citigroup: Neutral (Raises Target to $67.00) (March 30)
• Truist Securities: Initiated with Hold (Target $65.00) (March 24)
• JP Morgan: Upgraded to Neutral (Target $63.00) (March 20)

Top ETF Exposure

• State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (NYSE:XOP): 2.95% Weight
• VistaShares Target 15 Berkshire Select Income ETF (NYSE:OMAH): 4.90% Weight

Significance: Because OXY carries significant weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows for these ETFs will likely force automatic buying or selling of the stock.

OXY Stock Price Activity: Occidental Petroleum shares were up 4.62% at $65.11 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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