Carlsmed (CARL) Revenue Growth Of 74.9% Tests Bullish Narratives On Premium Valuation

Carlsmed (CARL) opened Q1 2026 with revenue of US$16.1 million, a basic EPS loss of US$0.32 and trailing twelve month revenue of US$56.4 million alongside a trailing basic EPS loss of US$1.70, setting a clear top line growth story against ongoing losses. Over the past year, the company has seen quarterly revenue move from US$10.2 million in Q1 2025 to US$16.1 million in Q1 2026, while quarterly basic EPS moved from a loss of US$1.47 to a loss of US$0.32. Trailing twelve month revenue rose from US$27.2 million at Q4 2024 to US$56.4 million at Q1 2026, and trailing basic EPS tightened from a loss of US$6.11 to a loss of US$1.70. For investors, the picture is one of strong revenue momentum paired with still negative margins, so the key question is how quickly this growth can translate into a more efficient earnings profile.

See our full analysis for Carlsmed.

With the latest results on the table, the next step is to see how these numbers line up with the prevailing Carlsmed narratives, highlighting where the growth story is supported by the data and where margin and profitability assumptions may need a rethink.

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74.9% Revenue Growth, Losses Still Around US$8.7 Million

• On a trailing basis, revenue over the last 12 months reached US$56.4 million, up from US$32.3 million a year earlier, while Q1 2026 net income excluding extra items was a loss of US$8.7 million compared with a loss of US$6.3 million in Q1 2025.
• Consensus narrative focuses on strong top line momentum, and the latest numbers both support and test that view:
  • Revenue grew 74.9% over the past year, and analysts forecast about 33.5% revenue growth per year, which lines up with the idea that procedure volumes and surgeon adoption are driving the story.
  • At the same time, trailing 12 month net income excluding extra items was a loss of US$33.8 million, so the scale of losses means the consensus view that Carlsmed remains loss making is fully reflected in the current data.

P/S Of 4.7x Versus Industry 2.7x

• The stock trades on a P/S of 4.7x compared with 2.7x for the broader US Medical Equipment industry and 5.9x for its peer group, while analysts’ price targets imply about 87% upside from the current share price of US$9.84 to a target of roughly US$18.40.
• Bulls argue this premium P/S and upside are justified by growth and the business model, and the latest figures give a mixed read on that claim:
  • Revenue over the last 12 months rose from US$27.2 million to US$56.4 million, which heavily supports the bullish view that hospitals and surgeons are adopting the platform and that the growth rate cited by analysts has a real revenue base behind it.
  • However, trailing basic EPS over the same window only moved from a loss of US$6.11 to a loss of US$1.70, so while losses narrowed on this measure, the company is still unprofitable and analysts do not forecast a return to profitability in the next three years, which is exactly the risk bullish investors need to keep front of mind.

On these numbers, bulls are leaning on strong revenue growth to support a premium multiple while accepting a long runway of losses, which is laid out in full in the 🐂 Carlsmed Bull Case

Q1 Loss Of US$8.7 Million And Persistent Unprofitability

• Q1 2026 net income excluding extra items was a loss of US$8.7 million, close to the Q4 2025 loss of US$8.6 million, and trailing 12 month net income excluding extra items was a loss of US$33.8 million, with analysts expecting Carlsmed to remain unprofitable for at least the next three years.
• Bears highlight this pattern of losses and cash use as a key concern, and the reported figures speak directly to that:
  • Quarterly losses have stayed in a tight band, with net income excluding extra items at losses of US$6.8 million to US$8.7 million across the last four reported quarters, which fits the bearish view that operating leverage has not yet shown up in the income statement.
  • The risk summary flags ongoing unprofitability as the major downside risk, and the trailing 12 month loss of US$33.8 million, alongside the expectation that profits are still several years away, underlines why more cautious investors focus on the duration and size of these losses as a central issue.

For anyone weighing that risk against the growth story, skeptics’ arguments around losses and valuation are set out in detail in the 🐻 Carlsmed Bear Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Carlsmed on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Given all of this, are you leaning more toward the growth story or the concern about losses, and how quickly could that change as new data arrives? To pressure test both the risks and the potential rewards before making any moves, take a closer look at the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

See What Else Is Out There

Carlsmed still reports sizeable quarterly losses of around US$8.7 million and remains unprofitable, so the growth story comes with clear earnings and risk trade offs.

If you want ideas with a smoother risk profile and less emphasis on persistent losses, check out the 74 resilient stocks with low risk scores to see companies with more resilient fundamentals.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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