Otsuka Corporation Just Recorded A 9.6% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Otsuka Corporation (TSE:4768) just released its first-quarter report and things are looking bullish. The company beat expectations with revenues of JP¥345b arriving 6.8% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were JP¥44.01, 9.6% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 13 analysts covering Otsuka is for revenues of JP¥1.31t in 2026. This implies a small 3.3% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 5.0% to JP¥167 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥1.30t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥166 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for Otsuka

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥3,594. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Otsuka analyst has a price target of JP¥4,400 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥2,620. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 4.4% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 10% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.2% per year. It's pretty clear that Otsuka's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,594, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Otsuka going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Otsuka's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.