Dongwu Securities: PV supply-side inflection point has reached to broaden demand for space photovoltaics

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongwu Securities released a research report saying that the PV supply-side inflection point has been reached, and space PV is broadening demand. The policy guides “anti-internal volume” to speed up the clearance of backward production capacity, and all sectors have completely stopped expanding. The price of Q1 components has now rebounded in 2026, and the profit pressure on the industrial chain has gradually recovered after bottoming out. The installation target during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period is clear. The accelerated deployment of commercial space low-orbit satellites has given space photovoltaics 100 billion market flexibility, and space computing power is expected to bring trillions of dollars in market size.

Energy storage: Household storage and large storage resonate globally, and demand for electrocatalysis for AI is increasing. Household storage is driven by policies and a catalytic outbreak of global electricity shortages, and demand is strong in Australia and Europe (such as Ukraine and the United Kingdom). In terms of large reserves, the domestic document No. 114 clarifies for the first time that the capacity electricity price mechanism drives a continuous increase in demand. Furthermore, electricity demand surged in the US due to extreme weather and AI data centers, leading to a second surge in large storage. Dongwu Securities expects global energy storage demand to grow 60% to 1,024 GWh in '26.

Batteries: Strong demand+continued improvement in profits, highlighting advantages under the global energy crisis. Domestic power demand has initially recovered, and export demand is expected to continue to exceed expectations against the backdrop of increased bicycle charging capacity exceeding expectations and rising fuel prices. Global power demand is expected to be 20% + in '26; as domestic electricity prices are introduced one after another, energy storage demand is expected to accelerate. Global energy storage demand is expected to increase by 60% in '26, lithium batteries are expected to grow by 30% + in '26, and maintain a growth rate of 20% + in '27. Strong demand led to a new high production schedule in March, with a further increase of 0-5% in April. The Q2 peak season began a new round of price increases. The battery sector was smooth and the price increase was remarkable. Price increases for lithium carbonate, diaphragms, copper foil, hexafluoride, etc. are expected to be realized, and lithium battery demand+ performance continues to be realized.

Wind power: The “Double Seas” strategy drives high prosperity, and profit restoration and structural upgrading resonate. The domestic ocean wind deep sea plan is about to be implemented, and the installed sea breeze is expected to increase by 30% + in 2026. Europe is driven by energy security. Seabreeze auctions and FID continue to be booming, while the UK's cancellation of tariffs on wind power components directly benefits China's overseas travel chain. Land wind growth in emerging domestic markets is strong, and fan export capacity increased by nearly 50% year on year, leading to significant increases. The price of landwind fans has rebounded steadily. Dongwu Securities expects the manufacturing sector to reach an inflection point in 2026, and large-scale expansion will drive structural upgrades and gross profit improvements for some core components (such as castings, blades, ultra-high pressure and flexible straight sea cables).