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    A Look At Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Valuation After Bill Ackman’s Bullish Undervaluation Call

    Simply Wall St·04/03/2026 14:28:19
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    Annaly Capital Management (NLY) drew fresh attention after investor Bill Ackman publicly called mortgage finance names “stupidly cheap” and outlined what he views as a highly skewed risk reward, sparking a 1.9% intraday share move.

    See our latest analysis for Annaly Capital Management.

    At a share price of $21.37, Annaly’s 1 day share price return of 1.14% and 7 day share price return of 1.47% sit against a 30 day share price return of a 7.25% decline. Its 1 year total shareholder return of 24.61% and 3 year total shareholder return of 66.64% point to stronger longer term momentum that recent commentary from Bill Ackman and technology upgrades such as Onslow Bay’s MeridianLink Mortgage rollout have brought back into focus.

    If this kind of rebound story interests you, it could be a good moment to see what is happening across the broader market with 20 top founder-led companies

    With shares sitting at $21.37 and a 13% gap to the average analyst price target of $24.18, along with solid recent revenue and net income figures, is Annaly still trading at a discount, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

    Most Popular Narrative: 12.6% Undervalued

    With Annaly closing at $21.37 against a narrative fair value of $24.45, the most followed storyline in the market sees meaningful upside still on the table, built around mortgage focused earnings power and capital deployment.

    The business is benefiting from a strategic shift in coupon allocation by positioning in higher coupon segments (6% and 6.5%) within its Agency MBS portfolio, potentially enhancing the economic return and net margins. Improved financing costs and economic leverage, along with $400 million in accretive common equity raised, have set the stage for increased earnings available for distribution, thus supporting revenue growth and stronger margins moving forward.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious what kind of revenue path and profit margins need to hold for that fair value to stack up? The narrative leans on measured growth, richer spreads and a higher future earnings multiple than the sector has typically carried. The exact mix of growth rates, margin assumptions and discount rate is where the thesis really comes to life.

    Result: Fair Value of $24.45 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, you also need to weigh the risk that higher-for-longer interest rate volatility or rising competition in non-agency mortgages squeezes returns and compresses margins.

    Find out about the key risks to this Annaly Capital Management narrative.

    Next Steps

    Have you seen enough optimism and caution to question where Annaly really stands? Act now by weighing both sides with the full breakdown of 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs

    Looking for more investment ideas?

    If Annaly has sharpened your interest, do not stop here. A focused shortlist of other opportunities could be the difference between an average portfolio and a standout one.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.