MIXUE Group (HKG:2097) Just Reported, And Analysts Assigned A HK$424 Price Target

There's been a notable change in appetite for MIXUE Group (HKG:2097) shares in the week since its annual report, with the stock down 15% to HK$286. The result was positive overall - although revenues of CN¥34b were in line with what the analysts predicted, MIXUE Group surprised by delivering a statutory profit of CN¥15.65 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Following the latest results, MIXUE Group's 22 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥37.3b in 2026. This would be a solid 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 8.1% to CN¥16.76. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥37.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥17.48 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for MIXUE Group

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 14% to HK$424, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic MIXUE Group analyst has a price target of HK$587 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$262. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that MIXUE Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 25% over the past three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while MIXUE Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for MIXUE Group. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for MIXUE Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.