The Meituan (HKG:3690) Yearly Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

It's been a good week for Meituan (HKG:3690) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 8.5% to HK$85.90. The statutory results were mixed overall, with revenues of CN¥365b in line with analyst forecasts, but losses of CN¥3.84 per share, some 2.9% larger than the analysts were predicting. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Meituan from 38 analysts is for revenues of CN¥406.5b in 2026. If met, it would imply a meaningful 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 65% to CN¥1.34. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of CN¥412.6b and CN¥0.14 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Meituan even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a regrettable increase in per-share losses.

See our latest analysis for Meituan

The consensus price target held steady at HK$112, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Meituan at HK$154 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$53.96. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Meituan's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Meituan's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 11% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 20% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.0% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Meituan is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Meituan. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Meituan going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.