Is It Too Late To Consider Calix (CALX) After Last Year’s 42% Share Price Jump?

• Wondering if Calix at around US$50.63 is offering good value right now, or if the easy money has already been made.
• The stock is up 41.9% over the past year, even though the year to date return sits at a 5.5% decline and the 30 day return is a 3.2% decline.
• Recent news coverage has focused on Calix as a communications technology player whose share price has moved sharply over the last year, with investors reacting to shifting expectations about its growth and competitive position. Headlines have highlighted how the stock’s longer term 5 year return of 29.6% compares with the more muted 3 year return of a 1.3% decline, giving extra context to the latest moves.
• Calix currently has a value score of 4/6, which reflects how it screens across several standard valuation checks. The next sections will break this down using different methods before finishing with a broader way to think about what that score really means for you.

Find out why Calix's 41.9% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: Calix Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company might be worth by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s value. For Calix, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections.

Calix’s latest twelve month free cash flow is about $115.68 million. The model then uses analyst and extrapolated estimates, including projected free cash flow of $169 million in 2026 and $231 million in 2027, with further projections out to 2035 provided by Simply Wall St. These ten year forecasts, all in $, are discounted back to today to get an estimated intrinsic value per share of about $111.86.

Set against a current share price of roughly $50.63, this DCF output indicates that, on this model, the shares trade at a 54.7% discount to the calculated intrinsic value.

Result: UNDERVALUED (according to this DCF model)

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Calix is undervalued by 54.7%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 49 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Calix.

Approach 2: Calix Price vs Sales

For a business like Calix, where investors often focus on revenue scale and market position, the price to sales (P/S) ratio can be a practical way to think about value, especially when earnings are less central to the story.

Growth expectations and risk matter because a higher growth outlook or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/S multiple, while slower growth or higher uncertainty usually calls for a lower, more conservative multiple.

Calix currently trades on a P/S of 3.32x. This sits above the Communications industry average of 1.93x and also above the peer average of 2.60x, so purely on simple comparisons the shares look more expensive than many alternatives in the group.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Calix is 4.67x. This is a proprietary estimate of what the P/S might be given factors such as the company’s growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk characteristics, which can make it more tailored than broad industry or peer averages.

Since the current 3.32x P/S is below the 4.67x Fair Ratio, this framework points to Calix trading at a discount to what that model considers a fair multiple.

Result: UNDERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Calix Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives on Simply Wall St’s Community page let you attach a clear story about Calix to your own forecast for revenue, earnings, margins and fair value. You can then compare that fair value to the current price and see in real time whether your view suggests buying or selling as new news or earnings arrive. Some investors are building a more optimistic Calix Narrative closer to a US$90 fair value, while others are choosing a more cautious version nearer to US$60, all within the same easy to use framework.

Do you think there's more to the story for Calix? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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