Groupon (GRPN) Returns To Q4 Profit As EPS Turnaround Tests Bearish Narratives

Groupon (GRPN) closed FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of US$132.7 million and basic EPS of US$0.18, alongside trailing 12 month revenue of US$498.4 million and a basic EPS loss of US$2.06. Over recent quarters, the company has reported revenue between US$114.5 million and US$132.7 million per quarter. Basic EPS has moved from a loss of US$2.92 in Q3 2025 to a profit of US$0.18 in Q4 2025. Investors are weighing these recent quarterly profits against a still negative trailing earnings base and compressed margins.

See our full analysis for Groupon.

With the latest numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this mix of quarterly profits and trailing losses fits with the main narratives investors follow around Groupon’s potential, risks, and path to healthier margins.

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TTM still shows US$82.9 million loss

• Over the trailing 12 months to Q4 2025, Groupon recorded revenue of US$498.4 million and a net loss (excluding extra items) of US$82.9 million, with trailing basic EPS at a loss of US$2.06.
• Consensus narrative talks about earnings reaching US$96.3 million by around 2028 with margins moving from a loss position to 14.4%, yet the current 12 month loss and negative margins underline how much needs to change for that path to play out.
  • Analysts are looking for revenue growth of 11.2% per year and a shift from a US$82.9 million loss to profits, while the latest trailing data still reflects unprofitable operations.
  • That same consensus expects Groupon to support a 16.8x P/E multiple on future earnings. This sits against today’s negative EPS and means any P/E based view is currently built on those future profit assumptions rather than recent results.

Quarterly swings from US$118.4 million loss to profit

• Within FY 2025, net income excluding extra items ranged from a loss of US$118.4 million in Q3 to profits of US$7.5 million in Q4 and US$20.3 million in Q2, with Q1 also profitable at US$7.6 million.
• Bulls argue that platform modernization and AI driven personalization can support more consistent profitability, and the fact that three of the last four quarters were profitable on this measure sits beside the very large Q3 loss as a key tension point.
  • Supporters point to expected earnings growth of about 89.28% per year and an anticipated move to profitability within three years, while the Q3 loss shows that individual quarters can still be heavily loss making.
  • They also point to forecast revenue growth of 10.6% per year, which is slightly above the 10.4% figure for the US market, yet the recent pattern of both profitable and loss making quarters suggests execution will need to be much more consistent to reach those targets.

Have earnings volatility and bullish growth forecasts got your attention, but you want the full upside case laid out clearly for you? 🐂 Groupon Bull Case

Low 0.9x P/S against losses and negative equity

• Groupon is trading on a P/S of 0.9x versus a US Multiline Retail industry average of 1.2x and a peer average of 2.0x, while it remains unprofitable over the last year and has negative shareholders’ equity.
• Bears argue that competition, merchant dissatisfaction and aging technology could keep pressure on user engagement and margins, and the combination of ongoing losses, negative equity and a low sales multiple provides data points that line up with parts of that cautious view.
  • The company reported a trailing 12 month net loss of US$82.9 million and basic EPS loss of US$2.06, so the low P/S sits alongside a business that has not yet returned to profitability on a yearly basis.
  • At the same time, the current share price of US$11.08 sits far below the DCF fair value of US$71.01 in the analysis. This means anyone focusing on competitive and execution risks also needs to weigh a valuation model that suggests the price is well under that implied level.

If you are weighing that low 0.9x P/S against continued losses and balance sheet pressure, you may want a sharper view on the downside case too. 🐻 Groupon Bear Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Groupon on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Seeing both the risks and the potential here, and want to test the numbers yourself while the market is still forming a view? Take a closer look at the balance of 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign so you can decide where you stand.

Explore Alternatives

Groupon’s mix of trailing 12 month losses, negative equity, volatile quarterly earnings and still pressured margins highlights balance sheet and consistency concerns for some investors.

If those weak spots worry you, take a few minutes to compare with companies in our solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (41 results) that focus on stronger financial foundations and potentially steadier performance.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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