JOYY (NasdaqGS:JOYY) One Off US$1.9b Gain Challenges Earnings Growth Narratives

JOYY (NasdaqGS:JOYY) has just wrapped up FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of US$581.9 million and basic EPS of US$20.84, capping a year in which trailing twelve month revenue came in at about US$2.1 billion and basic EPS on that basis reached US$797.28, supported by a US$1.9 billion one off gain earlier in the year. The company has seen quarterly revenue move from US$549.4 million in Q4 2024 to US$581.9 million in Q4 2025, while quarterly basic EPS shifted from a loss of US$5.67 to a profit of US$20.84. This sets up a set of results where margins look inflated and require careful interpretation by anyone focusing on underlying profitability.

See our full analysis for JOYY.

With the latest numbers on the table, it is worth lining them up against the prevailing narratives around JOYY to see which stories still hold and which might need a rethink.

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US$1.9b one off gain makes EPS look unusually high

• For FY 2025, JOYY’s trailing twelve month net income excluding extra items is reported at US$2.1b on revenue of about US$2.1b, with Q1 2025 alone showing US$1.9b of net income excluding extra items on US$494.4 million of revenue. This makes the 82.3% margin in the narratives heavily influenced by that single period.
• Bulls point to JOYY’s 70.2% per year earnings growth over five years and the low 1.5x P/E as signs of strong profitability, yet this very large one off gain means:
  • The recent EPS figure of roughly US$797.28 on a trailing basis is being compared with peers that do not have a similar one off uplift, so the P/E discount may be partly driven by temporarily inflated earnings.
  • Forecasts in the bullish narrative still show earnings at US$98.5 million by 2028, far below the recent US$2.1b level. This supports the idea that even optimistic analysts treat the current margin as unsustainable.

Core profitability sits in the tens of millions

• Leaving the US$1.9b spike aside, the last three quarters of 2025 show net income excluding extra items between US$54.0 million and US$61.6 million on quarterly revenue ranging from US$507.8 million to US$581.9 million. This points to underlying profits that are much smaller than the trailing twelve month total suggests.
• Bears argue that earnings are set to decline by about 94.1% per year over the next three years, and the pattern in these quarterly numbers connects to that concern:
  • With Q2 and Q3 2025 net income excluding extra items at about US$60 million on a little over US$500 million of revenue, the business looks profitable but not close to the US$2.1b trailing figure that drives the very low 1.5x P/E.
  • If future earnings track closer to this tens of millions range than to the one off driven peak, the low multiple and any bearish price targets become easier to reconcile with the current share price of US$61.15.

On a quarter like this, where profits cluster around tens of millions but the trailing figure is in the billions, skeptics warn that headline EPS can give a misleading sense of scale before the one off gain is stripped out. 🐻 JOYY Bear Case

Low 1.5x P/E versus US$202.82 DCF fair value

• JOYY is trading on a trailing P/E of 1.5x at a share price of US$61.15, while the provided DCF fair value is US$202.82 and the single allowed analyst price target reference is US$78.09. All of these sit above where the stock is currently priced.
• Supporters of the bullish view see this valuation gap as an opportunity, but the earnings path in the data creates a clear tension:
  • The bullish narrative expects revenue to grow by 6.1% per year over the next three years and earnings of US$98.5 million by 2028. This implies the higher figures for fair value and price targets are based on future multiples rather than on today’s one off boosted earnings base.
  • At the same time, consensus points to earnings shrinking from US$1.7b today to US$267.8 million by 2028 with margins falling from 82.3% to 11.3%, so any case for upside from US$61.15 has to reckon with smaller profits than the current trailing numbers suggest.

If you want to see how bullish investors connect JOYY’s low 1.5x P/E and the US$202.82 DCF fair value to those future earnings assumptions, 🐂 JOYY Bull Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for JOYY on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Given how mixed this picture is, with big one offs and more modest core profits, it makes sense to check the full numbers yourself and decide where you stand. You can round out that view by weighing 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

Explore Alternatives

JOYY’s reliance on a very large one off gain, alongside core earnings sitting in the tens of millions, leaves its underlying profit profile looking uneven and harder to read.

If you would rather focus on steadier businesses with cleaner earnings profiles, take a look at our 67 resilient stocks with low risk scores that could offer more consistent fundamentals than JOYY’s one off heavy results.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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