Is It Too Late To Revisit Expro Group Holdings (XPRO) After Its Strong One Year Rally?

• If you are wondering whether Expro Group Holdings at around US$16.64 is still attractively priced or already baking in a lot of optimism, you are asking the right question.
• The stock has had a mixed ride recently, with a 6.8% decline over the past week, a 3.5% gain over the last month, and returns of 22.0% year to date and 55.7% over the past year, while the 3 year return sits at a 19.3% loss.
• These moves have kept Expro on the radar for investors who are watching how sentiment in the energy space flows between opportunity and risk. While there has not been a single headline completely defining the recent price action, the share price path itself is giving plenty of clues about how the market is reassessing the business.
• On our valuation checks, Expro scores 3 out of 6 for being potentially undervalued. You can see this broken down in more detail in our valuation score. Next, we walk through the usual valuation tools before ending with a broader way to think about what the market might be pricing in.

Expro Group Holdings delivered 55.7% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Energy Services industry.

Approach 1: Expro Group Holdings Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company could be worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back to today using a required return. For Expro Group Holdings, the model used here is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach.

Expro’s last twelve months free cash flow is reported at $84.4 million. Analyst and model projections, provided in $, indicate free cash flow figures reaching an extrapolated $254.1 million in 2035, with intermediate annual projections between 2026 and 2034 supplied by a mix of analyst estimates and modelled growth rates. Simply Wall St notes that analysts typically provide up to 5 years of estimates, with the later years extrapolated by the platform.

On this basis, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of $42.60 per share. Against the current share price of about $16.64, this implies the stock is 60.9% undervalued according to these projections.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Expro Group Holdings is undervalued by 60.9%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 50 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Expro Group Holdings.

Approach 2: Expro Group Holdings Price vs Earnings

For companies that are already generating earnings, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of profit. A higher or lower P/E on its own does not say much, because what counts as a reasonable multiple usually reflects how the market views a company’s growth prospects and risk profile.

Expro Group Holdings currently trades on a P/E of 36.6x. That sits above the Energy Services industry average of 26.2x and also above the peer average of 42.9x that Simply Wall St uses for comparison within a closer group of companies. To go a step further, Simply Wall St calculates a proprietary “Fair Ratio” for Expro of 19.3x. This is the P/E level it estimates would be appropriate given factors such as the company’s earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market capitalization and risk characteristics.

This Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple peer or industry comparison because it is tailored to Expro’s own profile rather than relying on broad group averages. With the current 36.6x P/E sitting well above the 19.3x Fair Ratio, the shares screen as expensive on this metric.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Expro Group Holdings Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way for you to connect your view of Expro Group Holdings to numbers by linking its story to a financial forecast and then to a fair value on Simply Wall St's Community page, where millions of investors share their work. For example, one Expro Narrative anchors on a fair value around US$13.00 with assumptions such as revenue growth of about 117% and an 8.9% profit margin, while another reaches US$19.00 using different revenue and margin expectations. By comparing these fair values with the current share price you can decide whether you see Expro as closer to the cautious or optimistic case, with the platform automatically updating each Narrative as new earnings, news or guidance come in.

For Expro Group Holdings, however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Expro Group Holdings Narratives:

• One takes the view that the market is still underestimating what Expro could earn if subsea technology, brownfield work and acquisitions all play out strongly.
• The other leans on a more measured set of analyst assumptions that keep expectations closer to the current consensus.
• Putting them side by side helps you see what needs to go right, or wrong, before the current US$16.64 share price starts to look out of place.

🐂 Expro Group Holdings Bull Case

Fair value in this narrative: US$19.00 per share

Gap between narrative fair value and last close of US$16.64: about 12.4% below that fair value anchor

Revenue growth assumption used: about 1.0% decline

• Builds on subsea well access tools like Solus, AI and automation enabled services, and a larger role in brownfield and production optimisation to support higher margin work and stronger free cash flow over time.
• Assumes Expro can use its balance sheet and liquidity, approaching US$500 million in this narrative, to keep acquiring and cross selling, which could lift earnings power above what simple peer comparisons imply.
• Flags clear risks around fossil fuel demand, decarbonisation pressure, regulation and competition, so the fair value is tied to those revenue, margin and P/E assumptions holding up against these headwinds.

🐻 Expro Group Holdings Bear Case

Fair value in this narrative: US$14.40 per share

Gap between narrative fair value and last close of US$16.64: about 15.5% above that fair value anchor

Revenue growth assumption used: about 11.5%

• Anchors on a consensus view where Expro benefits from global energy demand, order backlog and technology adoption, but pairs that with a more muted 2026 outlook and tight valuation assumptions.
• Sees margin improvement, cash generation and share buybacks as supportive, yet treats current pricing as already reflecting a good portion of those gains given the assumed future P/E multiple around the high teens.
• Places more weight on risks around decarbonisation, customer concentration, regulation and project timing, which could leave less room for error if earnings or capital spending soften.

Putting these Narratives together, you can think of Expro’s current price as sitting between a higher US$19.00 fair value anchor that leans into subsea technology and M&A, and a US$14.40 anchor that keeps closer to blended analyst expectations and a more cautious medium term view. The key for you is deciding which assumptions on revenue, margins, valuation multiples and energy transition risks feel closest to your own view of how the business could develop.

Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives

Do you think there's more to the story for Expro Group Holdings? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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